Catalonia will hold elections on 27 September which have been framed by pro-independence parties as a de facto vote on Catalan independence. Daniel Cetrà writes that while the polling suggests the pro-independence parties will win the election, it remains unclear whether they will secure a majority of votes. He outlines three potential scenarios that could emerge from the election: a majority for the main pro-independence list ‘Together for Yes’, which would allow them to set in motion their plan for secession; a situation where Together for Yes relies on other pro-independence parties for a majority; and a defeat for Together for Yes, which could ultimately spell the end for the independence movement’s campaign for secession.
This Sunday’s regional election in Catalonia is exceptional as the pro-independence camp aims to turn it into a de facto plebiscite on independence. The two main nationalist parties, the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), will run together under the pro-independence list ‘Together for Yes’, and their roadmap includes declaring independence within 18 months if the election delivers an overall majority of pro-independence seats.