Abstract
Aim: Although ecological niche models have been instrumental in understanding the widespread species distribution shifts under global change, rapid niche shifts limit model transferability to novel locations or time periods. Niche shifts during range expansion have been studied extensively in invasive species, but may also occur in native populations tracking climate change. We compared niche shifts during both types of range expansion in a Mediterranean annual plant to ask (i) whether the species' native range expansion tracked climate change, (ii) whether further range expansion was promoted by niche expansion, and (iii) how these results changed forecasts of two ongoing invasions in Australia and California.
Location: Eurasian Holarctic, California and Australia.
Taxon: Dittrichia graveolens (L.) Greuter (Asteraceae).
Methods: Niche shifts were quantified in both environmental and geographic space, using the framework of niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling and expansion (COUE) as well as maximum entropy modelling. We used the historic native distribution and climate data (1901–1930) to project the expected distribution in the present climate (1990–2019) and compared it to the observed current distribution of D. graveolens. Finally, we compared invasion forecasts based on the historic and present native niches.
Results: Dittrichia graveolens expanded its native range well beyond expectations based on the observed climate change, associated with a 5.5% niche expansion towards more temperate climates. In contrast, both invasions showed niche conservatism and were (still) constrained to climatic areas matching the historic native niche.
Main conclusions: Contrary to hypotheses in the literature, niche shifts are not necessarily more rapid in invasions than in native range expansions. We conclude that niche expansion during the process of climate tracking may cause further range expansion than expected based on climate change alone.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1481-1493 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | Journal of Biogeography |
| Volume | 49 |
| Issue number | 8 |
| Early online date | 27 May 2022 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Aug 2022 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:We are grateful to Zarina Pringle for her assistance in the occurrence data collection. We also thank A. Pliszko, M. Kaligarič, G. Király, P. Eliáš and D. Schmidt for pointing us to occurrence records in Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and Hungary. Finally, we thank the Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland for providing data from the UK. No fieldwork permits were required for this work. Members of the Parker and Gilbert labs provided helpful comments at several points in the study. This work was funded by Swiss National Science Foundation grant P2EZP3_178481 to N.L. and USDA NIFA grant 2020-67013-31856 to I.M.P.
Funding
We are grateful to Zarina Pringle for her assistance in the occurrence data collection. We also thank A. Pliszko, M. Kaligarič, G. Király, P. Eliáš and D. Schmidt for pointing us to occurrence records in Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and Hungary. Finally, we thank the Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland for providing data from the UK. No fieldwork permits were required for this work. Members of the Parker and Gilbert labs provided helpful comments at several points in the study. This work was funded by Swiss National Science Foundation grant P2EZP3_178481 to N.L. and USDA NIFA grant 2020-67013-31856 to I.M.P.
Keywords
- climate change
- ENM
- habitat suitability
- invasion
- native range
- niche model
- niche shift
- range expansion
- range shift
- SDM
Access to Document
- Lustentower_etParker_JBG_BeyondTrackingClimate_VOR
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