Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world

Stephanie Roe; Charlotte Streck; Michael Obersteiner; Stefan Frank; Bronson Griscom; Laurent Drouet; Oliver Fricko; Mykola Gusti; Nancy Harris; Tomoko Hasegawa; Zeke Hausfather; Petr  Havlík; Jo House; Gert-Jan Nabuurs; Alexander Popp; María José Sanz Sánchez; Jonathan  Sanderman; Pete Smith; Elke  Stehfest; Deborah Lawrence

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9

Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world

Stephanie Roe^* (Corresponding Author), Charlotte Streck, Michael Obersteiner, Stefan Frank, Bronson Griscom, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Mykola Gusti, Nancy Harris, Tomoko Hasegawa, Zeke Hausfather, Petr Havlík, Jo House, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Alexander Popp, María José Sanz Sánchez, Jonathan Sanderman, Pete Smith, Elke Stehfest, Deborah Lawrence

^*Corresponding author for this work

Aberdeen Centre For Environmental Sustainability

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we combine modelling and a meta-analysis of mitigation strategies to develop a land sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector (agriculture, forestry, wetlands, bioenergy) towards more sustainable practices could contribute ~30% (15 GtCO2e/yr) of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5°C target, however it will require substantially more ambitious effort than the 2˚C target. Addressing risks, barriers and incentives are necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security, and environmental co-benefits.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	817-828
Number of pages	12
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	9
Early online date	21 Oct 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9
Publication status	Published - Nov 2019

Bibliographical note

Acknowledgements

The analysis in this study was guided by the valuable feedback and recommendations of expert consultations and interviews, and we extend our gratitude to all those individuals who contributed to our research and analysis: Jeff Atkins (Virginia Commonwealth University), Jonah Busch (Earth Innovation Institute), Peter Ellis (The Nature Conservancy), Jason Funk (Center for Carbon Removal), Trisha Gopalakrishna (The Nature Conservancy), Alan Kroeger (Climate Focus), Bernice Lee (Chatham House), Donna Lee (Climate and Land Use Alliance), Simon Lewis (University College London), Guy Lomax (The Nature Conservancy), Dann Mitchell (University of Bristol), Raoni Rajão (University of Minas Gerais), Joeri Rogelj (IIASA), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (Climate Analytics), Paul West (University of Minnesota), Graham Wynne (Prince of Wales International Sustainability Unit), Ana Yang (Children’s Investment Fund Foundation) and Dan Zarin (Climate and Land Use Alliance). A special thank you to Esther Chak and Mary-Jo Valentino (Imaginary Office) for designing the figures in this study. This work was generously supported by the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation and the authors’ institutions and funding sources.

Keywords

agroecology
climate and earth system modelling
climate-change mitigation
forestry
projection and prediction
GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS
MANAGEMENT
AGRICULTURE
SOIL CARBON
SEQUESTRATION
CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION
NEGATIVE EMISSIONS
TROPICAL FORESTS
BIOMASS
BIOCHAR

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Accepted Manuscript
This is the author's accepted manuscript of an article published in Nature Climate Change. The final published version can be found at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9
Accepted author manuscript, 2.37 MBLicence: Unspecified

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Cite this

Roe, S., Streck, C., Obersteiner, M., Frank, S., Griscom, B., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Gusti, M., Harris, N., Hasegawa, T., Hausfather, Z., Havlík, P., House, J., Nabuurs, G-J., Popp, A., Sanz Sánchez, M. J., Sanderman, J., Smith, P., Stehfest, E., & Lawrence, D. (2019). Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world. Nature Climate Change, 9, 817-828. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9

Roe, S, Streck, C, Obersteiner, M, Frank, S, Griscom, B, Drouet, L, Fricko, O, Gusti, M, Harris, N, Hasegawa, T, Hausfather, Z, Havlík, P, House, J, Nabuurs, G-J, Popp, A, Sanz Sánchez, MJ, Sanderman, J, Smith, P, Stehfest, E & Lawrence, D 2019, 'Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world', Nature Climate Change, vol. 9, pp. 817-828. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9

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abstract = "The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we combine modelling and a meta-analysis of mitigation strategies to develop a land sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector (agriculture, forestry, wetlands, bioenergy) towards more sustainable practices could contribute ~30% (15 GtCO2e/yr) of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5°C target, however it will require substantially more ambitious effort than the 2˚C target. Addressing risks, barriers and incentives are necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security, and environmental co-benefits.",

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AU - Hasegawa, Tomoko

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AU - Nabuurs, Gert-Jan

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AU - Sanz Sánchez, María José

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AU - Smith, Pete

AU - Stehfest, Elke

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Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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Pete Smith

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Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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Pete Smith

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