Decline in carbon emission intensity of global agriculture has stagnated recently

Zhaohai Bai; Nannan Zhang; Wilfried Winiwarter; Jiafa Luo; Jinfeng Chang; Pete Smith; Stewart Ledgard; Yan Wu; Chaopeng Hong; Giulia Conchedda; Lin Ma

doi:10.1073/pnas.2317725121

Decline in carbon emission intensity of global agriculture has stagnated recently

Zhaohai Bai
, Nannan Zhang
, Wilfried Winiwarter
, Jiafa Luo
, Jinfeng Chang
, Pete Smith
, Stewart Ledgard
, Yan Wu
, Chaopeng Hong
, Giulia Conchedda
, Lin Ma^* (Corresponding Author)

^*Corresponding author for this work

Aberdeen Centre For Environmental Sustainability

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using global data for around 180 countries and territories and 170 food/feed types primarily derived from FAOSTAT, we have systematically analyzed the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (GHG_i) (kg CO_2eq per kg protein production) over the past six decades. We found that, with large spatial heterogeneity, emission intensity decreased by nearly two-thirds from 1961 to 2019, predominantly in the earlier years due to agronomic improvement in productivity. However, in the most recent decade, emission intensity has become stagnant, and in a few countries even showed an increase, due to the rapid increase in livestock production and land use changes. The trade of final produced protein between countries has potentially reduced the global GHG_i, especially for countries that are net importers with high GHG_i, such as many in Africa and South Asia. Overall, a continuous decline of emission intensity in the future relies on countries with higher emission intensity to increase agricultural productivity and minimize land use changes. Countries with lower emission intensity should reduce livestock production and increase the free trade of agricultural products and improve the trade optimality.

Original language	English
Article number	e2317725121
Number of pages	11
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	121
Issue number	34
Early online date	12 Aug 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2317725121
Publication status	Published - 20 Aug 2024

Data Availability Statement

Emission data, agricultural production data, and trade data are curated by the FAOSTAT, which are freely available from FAOSTAT at https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/domains_table (1). Raw data of agricultural production, trade, and emissions from drained organic soils were accessed in December 2022. Raw data of emissions excluding that from drained organic soils were accessed in February 2023. All details of the data access have been listed in SI Appendix, Table S1. Land-use change emissions were obtained from the study of Hong et al. (6). The source data supporting the findings of this study are available within the article and its supplementary information files. The raw and final data will be shared in the Science Data Bank website (https://www.scidb.cn/s/3UBjUf) (50) after the manuscript is accepted for publication. Statistics were mainly performed using R (version 4.2.3). The spatial analysis was run in ArcGIS (version 10.8). The code for analysis will be shared in the Science Data Bank website (https://www.scidb.cn/s/3UBjUf) (50) after the manuscript is accepted for publication. All other data are included in the manuscript and/or SI Appendix.

Funding

This work was financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFE0101900), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (T2222016, 31572210, 31272247, and 42001254), President’s International Fellowship Initiative of Chinese Academy of Sciences (2019VCA0017), Key R&D Program of Hebei, China (21327507D); Hebei Meat Poultry Innovation Team of Hebei Agriculture Research System (HBCT2024270203), the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Information and Employment under the NZ-China Joint Research Catalyst Fund, and the Natural Science Foundation Outstanding Young Scientist Project of Hebei Province, China (D2021503015). The views expressed in this paper are the authors’ only and do not necessarily reflect those of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Funders	Funder number
National Key Research and Development Program of China	2021YFE0101900
National Natural Science Foundation of China	T2222016, 31572210, 31272247, 42001254
Chinese Academy of Sciences	2019VCA0017
Key R&D Program of Hebei	21327507D
Hebei Agriculture Research System	HBCT2024270203
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
Natural Science Foundation	D2021503015

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 2 Zero Hunger
SDG 15 Life on Land

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Cite this

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title = "Decline in carbon emission intensity of global agriculture has stagnated recently",

abstract = "Using global data for around 180 countries and territories and 170 food/feed types primarily derived from FAOSTAT, we have systematically analyzed the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (GHGi) (kg CO2eq per kg protein production) over the past six decades. We found that, with large spatial heterogeneity, emission intensity decreased by nearly two-thirds from 1961 to 2019, predominantly in the earlier years due to agronomic improvement in productivity. However, in the most recent decade, emission intensity has become stagnant, and in a few countries even showed an increase, due to the rapid increase in livestock production and land use changes. The trade of final produced protein between countries has potentially reduced the global GHGi, especially for countries that are net importers with high GHGi, such as many in Africa and South Asia. Overall, a continuous decline of emission intensity in the future relies on countries with higher emission intensity to increase agricultural productivity and minimize land use changes. Countries with lower emission intensity should reduce livestock production and increase the free trade of agricultural products and improve the trade optimality.",

author = "Zhaohai Bai and Nannan Zhang and Wilfried Winiwarter and Jiafa Luo and Jinfeng Chang and Pete Smith and Stewart Ledgard and Yan Wu and Chaopeng Hong and Giulia Conchedda and Lin Ma",

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AU - Bai, Zhaohai

AU - Zhang, Nannan

AU - Winiwarter, Wilfried

AU - Luo, Jiafa

AU - Chang, Jinfeng

AU - Smith, Pete

AU - Ledgard, Stewart

AU - Wu, Yan

AU - Hong, Chaopeng

AU - Conchedda, Giulia

AU - Ma, Lin

PY - 2024/8/20

Y1 - 2024/8/20

N2 - Using global data for around 180 countries and territories and 170 food/feed types primarily derived from FAOSTAT, we have systematically analyzed the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (GHGi) (kg CO2eq per kg protein production) over the past six decades. We found that, with large spatial heterogeneity, emission intensity decreased by nearly two-thirds from 1961 to 2019, predominantly in the earlier years due to agronomic improvement in productivity. However, in the most recent decade, emission intensity has become stagnant, and in a few countries even showed an increase, due to the rapid increase in livestock production and land use changes. The trade of final produced protein between countries has potentially reduced the global GHGi, especially for countries that are net importers with high GHGi, such as many in Africa and South Asia. Overall, a continuous decline of emission intensity in the future relies on countries with higher emission intensity to increase agricultural productivity and minimize land use changes. Countries with lower emission intensity should reduce livestock production and increase the free trade of agricultural products and improve the trade optimality.

AB - Using global data for around 180 countries and territories and 170 food/feed types primarily derived from FAOSTAT, we have systematically analyzed the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (GHGi) (kg CO2eq per kg protein production) over the past six decades. We found that, with large spatial heterogeneity, emission intensity decreased by nearly two-thirds from 1961 to 2019, predominantly in the earlier years due to agronomic improvement in productivity. However, in the most recent decade, emission intensity has become stagnant, and in a few countries even showed an increase, due to the rapid increase in livestock production and land use changes. The trade of final produced protein between countries has potentially reduced the global GHGi, especially for countries that are net importers with high GHGi, such as many in Africa and South Asia. Overall, a continuous decline of emission intensity in the future relies on countries with higher emission intensity to increase agricultural productivity and minimize land use changes. Countries with lower emission intensity should reduce livestock production and increase the free trade of agricultural products and improve the trade optimality.

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Decline in carbon emission intensity of global agriculture has stagnated recently

Abstract

Data Availability Statement

Funding

UN SDGs

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