Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People

Eleftheria Vasileiou; Declan Bradley; Antony Chuter; Simon de Lusignan; Annemarie Docherty; David Ford; F.D. Richard Hobbs; Mark Joy; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; James Marple; Colin McCowan; Colin R. Simpson; Dylan McGagh; Jim McMenamin; Emily Moore; Josephine-L.K Murray; Jiafeng Pan; Lewis Ritchie; Syed Ahmar Shah; Sarah Stock; Fatemeh Torabi; Ruby S. M. Tsang; Chris Robertson; Rachael Wood; Mark Woolhouse; Aziz Sheikh; Ting Shi; Steven Kerr; Utkarsh Agrawal; Ashley Akbari; Stuart Bedston; Jillian Beggs

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3789264

Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People

Eleftheria Vasileiou, Declan Bradley, Antony Chuter, Simon de Lusignan, Annemarie Docherty, David Ford, F.D. Richard Hobbs, Mark Joy, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, James Marple, Colin McCowan, Colin R. Simpson, Dylan McGagh, Jim McMenamin, Emily Moore, Josephine-L.K Murray, Jiafeng Pan, Lewis Ritchie, Syed Ahmar Shah, Sarah StockFatemeh Torabi, Ruby S. M. Tsang, Chris Robertson, Rachael Wood, Mark Woolhouse, Aziz Sheikh, Ting Shi, Steven Kerr, Utkarsh Agrawal, Ashley Akbari, Stuart Bedston, Jillian Beggs

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

SummaryBackground: The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated high efficacy against infection in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. There is an urgent need to study the ‘real-world’ effects of these vaccines. The aim of our study was to estimate the effectiveness of the first dose of these COVID-19 vaccines in preventing hospital admissions.Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) database comprising of linked vaccination, primary care, Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) testing, hospitalisation and mortality records for 5.4 million people in Scotland (covering ~99% of population). A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 related hospitalisation (defined as 1- Adjusted Hazard Ratio) following the first dose of vaccine.Findings: The first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 85% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76 to 91) for COVID-19 related hospitalisation at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 94% (95% CI 73 to 99). Results of combined vaccine effect for prevention of COVID-19 related hospitalisation were comparable when restricting the analysis to those aged ≥80 years (81%; 95% CI 65 to 90 at 28-34 days post-vaccination).Interpretation: A single dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines resulted in substantial reductions in the risk of COVID-19 related hospitalisation in Scotland.Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council); Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund; Health Data Research UK.

Original language	English
Publisher	SSRN
Number of pages	21
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3789264
Publication status	Published - 19 Feb 2021

Publication series

Name	THELANCET-D-21-01335

Bibliographical note

Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council); Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund; Health Data Research UK.

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Vasileiou, E., Bradley, D., Chuter, A., de Lusignan, S., Docherty, A., Ford, D., Hobbs, F. D. R., Joy, M., Katikireddi, S. V., Marple, J., McCowan, C., Simpson, C. R., McGagh, D., McMenamin, J., Moore, E., Murray, J.-L. K., Pan, J., Ritchie, L., Shah, S. A., ... Beggs, J. (2021). Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People. (THELANCET-D-21-01335). SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3789264

Vasileiou, E, Bradley, D, Chuter, A, de Lusignan, S, Docherty, A, Ford, D, Hobbs, FDR, Joy, M, Katikireddi, SV, Marple, J, McCowan, C, Simpson, CR, McGagh, D, McMenamin, J, Moore, E, Murray, J-LK, Pan, J, Ritchie, L, Shah, SA, Stock, S, Torabi, F, Tsang, RSM, Robertson, C, Wood, R, Woolhouse, M, Sheikh, A, Shi, T, Kerr, S, Agrawal, U, Akbari, A, Bedston, S & Beggs, J 2021 'Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People' THELANCET-D-21-01335, SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3789264

@techreport{11d05036f3ee4e25aef62e9b72ed093b,

title = "Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People",

abstract = "SummaryBackground: The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated high efficacy against infection in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. There is an urgent need to study the {\textquoteleft}real-world{\textquoteright} effects of these vaccines. The aim of our study was to estimate the effectiveness of the first dose of these COVID-19 vaccines in preventing hospital admissions.Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) database comprising of linked vaccination, primary care, Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) testing, hospitalisation and mortality records for 5.4 million people in Scotland (covering ~99% of population). A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 related hospitalisation (defined as 1- Adjusted Hazard Ratio) following the first dose of vaccine.Findings: The first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 85% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76 to 91) for COVID-19 related hospitalisation at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 94% (95% CI 73 to 99). Results of combined vaccine effect for prevention of COVID-19 related hospitalisation were comparable when restricting the analysis to those aged ≥80 years (81%; 95% CI 65 to 90 at 28-34 days post-vaccination).Interpretation: A single dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines resulted in substantial reductions in the risk of COVID-19 related hospitalisation in Scotland.Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council); Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund; Health Data Research UK.",

author = "Eleftheria Vasileiou and Declan Bradley and Antony Chuter and {de Lusignan}, Simon and Annemarie Docherty and David Ford and Hobbs, {F.D. Richard} and Mark Joy and Katikireddi, {Srinivasa Vittal} and James Marple and Colin McCowan and Simpson, {Colin R.} and Dylan McGagh and Jim McMenamin and Emily Moore and Josephine-L.K Murray and Jiafeng Pan and Lewis Ritchie and Shah, {Syed Ahmar} and Sarah Stock and Fatemeh Torabi and Tsang, {Ruby S. M.} and Chris Robertson and Rachael Wood and Mark Woolhouse and Aziz Sheikh and Ting Shi and Steven Kerr and Utkarsh Agrawal and Ashley Akbari and Stuart Bedston and Jillian Beggs",

note = "Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council); Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund; Health Data Research UK. ",

year = "2021",

month = feb,

day = "19",

doi = "10.2139/ssrn.3789264",

language = "English",

series = "THELANCET-D-21-01335",

publisher = "SSRN",

type = "WorkingPaper",

institution = "SSRN",

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TY - UNPB

T1 - Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland

T2 - National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People

AU - Vasileiou, Eleftheria

AU - Bradley, Declan

AU - Chuter, Antony

AU - de Lusignan, Simon

AU - Docherty, Annemarie

AU - Ford, David

AU - Hobbs, F.D. Richard

AU - Joy, Mark

AU - Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal

AU - Marple, James

AU - McCowan, Colin

AU - Simpson, Colin R.

AU - McGagh, Dylan

AU - McMenamin, Jim

AU - Moore, Emily

AU - Murray, Josephine-L.K

AU - Pan, Jiafeng

AU - Ritchie, Lewis

AU - Shah, Syed Ahmar

AU - Stock, Sarah

AU - Torabi, Fatemeh

AU - Tsang, Ruby S. M.

AU - Robertson, Chris

AU - Wood, Rachael

AU - Woolhouse, Mark

AU - Sheikh, Aziz

AU - Shi, Ting

AU - Kerr, Steven

AU - Agrawal, Utkarsh

AU - Akbari, Ashley

AU - Bedston, Stuart

AU - Beggs, Jillian

N1 - Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council); Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund; Health Data Research UK.

PY - 2021/2/19

Y1 - 2021/2/19

N2 - SummaryBackground: The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated high efficacy against infection in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. There is an urgent need to study the ‘real-world’ effects of these vaccines. The aim of our study was to estimate the effectiveness of the first dose of these COVID-19 vaccines in preventing hospital admissions.Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) database comprising of linked vaccination, primary care, Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) testing, hospitalisation and mortality records for 5.4 million people in Scotland (covering ~99% of population). A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 related hospitalisation (defined as 1- Adjusted Hazard Ratio) following the first dose of vaccine.Findings: The first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 85% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76 to 91) for COVID-19 related hospitalisation at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 94% (95% CI 73 to 99). Results of combined vaccine effect for prevention of COVID-19 related hospitalisation were comparable when restricting the analysis to those aged ≥80 years (81%; 95% CI 65 to 90 at 28-34 days post-vaccination).Interpretation: A single dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines resulted in substantial reductions in the risk of COVID-19 related hospitalisation in Scotland.Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council); Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund; Health Data Research UK.

AB - SummaryBackground: The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated high efficacy against infection in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. There is an urgent need to study the ‘real-world’ effects of these vaccines. The aim of our study was to estimate the effectiveness of the first dose of these COVID-19 vaccines in preventing hospital admissions.Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) database comprising of linked vaccination, primary care, Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) testing, hospitalisation and mortality records for 5.4 million people in Scotland (covering ~99% of population). A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 related hospitalisation (defined as 1- Adjusted Hazard Ratio) following the first dose of vaccine.Findings: The first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 85% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76 to 91) for COVID-19 related hospitalisation at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 94% (95% CI 73 to 99). Results of combined vaccine effect for prevention of COVID-19 related hospitalisation were comparable when restricting the analysis to those aged ≥80 years (81%; 95% CI 65 to 90 at 28-34 days post-vaccination).Interpretation: A single dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines resulted in substantial reductions in the risk of COVID-19 related hospitalisation in Scotland.Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council); Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund; Health Data Research UK.

U2 - 10.2139/ssrn.3789264

DO - 10.2139/ssrn.3789264

M3 - Working paper

T3 - THELANCET-D-21-01335

BT - Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland

PB - SSRN

ER -

Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People

Abstract

Publication series

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

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