Abstract
This perspective argues that current methods for predicting biodiversity loss from future land use and climate change models are incomplete without incorporating projections of genetic diversity. Without methods to estimate current and future changes in genetic diversity, we cannot fully anticipate extinction risk, nor can we measure progress toward conservation targets. This oversight threatens to undermine our most ambitious biodiversity goals. We need a vanguard shift in how forecasting is approached, one that integrates genetic data into global biodiversity models.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e70477 |
| Number of pages | 4 |
| Journal | Global Change Biology |
| Volume | 31 |
| Issue number | 8 |
| Early online date | 26 Aug 2025 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 26 Aug 2025 |
Bibliographical note
I thank Mark Urban and Justin Travis for comments and feedback on earlier versions of this perspective.Data Availability Statement
The author has nothing to report.Funding
R.C.H. acknowledges the generous support of alumni and friends in establishing the University of Aberdeen's Interdisciplinary Institute, which enabled this research,including Dr. Jane Hellman Caseley (MBChB 1956), Professor PatrickMeares (DSc 1959), Nancy Miller (MA 1942), Norman Robertson, Dr.Ian Slessor (MBChB 1956), and Anne Young (MA 1957).
Keywords
- biodiversity
- forecasting
- genetic diversity
- macrogenetics
- modeling
- projections
Access to Document
- Henry_Future_Projections_of_VOR
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