Hormone replacement therapy and asthma onset in menopausal women: National cohort study

Syed A Shah* (Corresponding Author), Holly Tibble, Rebecca Pillinger, Susannah McLean, Dermot Ryan, Hilary Critchley, David Price, Catherine M Hawrylowicz, Colin R Simpson, Ireneous N Soyiri, Francis Appiagyei, Aziz Sheikh, Bright I Nwaru

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)
2 Downloads (Pure)


BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the role of hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) in the development of asthma.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether use of HRT and duration of use was associated with risk of development of asthma in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women.

METHODS: We constructed a 17-year (from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016) open cohort of 353,173 women (aged 46-70 years) from the Optimum Patient Care Database, a longitudinal primary care database from across the United Kingdom. HRT use, subtypes, and duration of use; confounding variables; and asthma onset were defined by using the Read Clinical Classification System. We fitted multilevel Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS: During the 17-year follow-up (1,340,423 person years), 7,614 new asthma cases occurred, giving an incidence rate of 5.7 (95% CI = 5.5-5.8) per 1,000 person years. Compared with nonuse of HRT, previous use of any (HR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.76-0.88), estrogen-only (HR = 0.89; 95% CI = 0.84-0.95), or combined estrogen and progestogen (HR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.76-0.88) HRT was associated with a reduced risk of asthma onset. This was also the case with current use of any (HR = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.74-0.85), estrogen-only (HR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.73-0.87), and combined estrogen and progestogen (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.70-0.87) HRT. Longer duration of HRT use (1-2 years [HR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.87-0.99]; 3-4 years [HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.70-0.84]; and ≥5 years [HR = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.64-0.78]) was associated with a dose-response reduced risk of asthma onset.

CONCLUSION: We found that HRT was associated with a reduced risk of development of late onset asthma in menopausal women. Further cohort studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1662-1670
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology
Issue number5
Early online date3 Dec 2020
Publication statusPublished - 31 May 2021

Bibliographical note

We would like to thank Dr Lynn Morrice for administrative assistance and the members of the Patient and Public Involvement group of the Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research who helped shape this project during the grant application stage. We are grateful to Optimum Patient Care and the Observational and Pragmatic Research Institute Pte Ltd for making the Optimum Patient Care Research Database database (www.opcrd.co.uk) available free of charge. We also thank Derek Skinner of the Observational and Pragmatic Research Institute Pte Ltd, who contributed to creation of the study data cut, identification of Read codes, and IMD quintiles. B.N. acknowledges the support of the VBG Group Herman Krefting Foundation on Asthma and Allergy, Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, and the Wallenberg Centre for Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Gothenburg.


  • Asthma
  • estrogens
  • epidemiology
  • estradiol
  • progestogen


Dive into the research topics of 'Hormone replacement therapy and asthma onset in menopausal women: National cohort study'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this