Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

M. C. Urban; G. Bocedi; A. P. Hendry; J. B. Mihoub; G. Pe'er; A. Singer; J. R. Bridle; L. G. Crozier; L. De Meester; W. Godsoe; A. Gonzalez; J. J. Hellmann; R. D. Holt; A. Huth; K. Johst; C. B. Krug; P. W. Leadley; S. C. F. Palmer; J. H. Pantel; A. Schmitz; P. A. Zollner; J. M. J. Travis

doi:10.1126/science.aad8466

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

M. C. Urban
, G. Bocedi
, A. P. Hendry
, J. B. Mihoub
, G. Pe'er
, A. Singer
, J. R. Bridle
, L. G. Crozier
, L. De Meester
, W. Godsoe
, A. Gonzalez
, J. J. Hellmann
, R. D. Holt
, A. Huth
, K. Johst
, C. B. Krug
, P. W. Leadley
, S. C. F. Palmer
, J. H. Pantel
, A. Schmitz

P. A. Zollner, J. M. J. Travis

University of Connecticut
McGill University
Sorbonne Université
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
University of Bristol
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
KU Leuven
Lincoln University
University of Minnesota Twin Cities
University of Florida
Osnabrück University
Université Paris-Sud
Université Paris-Saclay
Université de Montpellier
Purdue University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1038 Citations (Scopus)

30 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Original language	English
Article number	aad8466
Number of pages	9
Journal	Science
Volume	353
Issue number	6304
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466
Publication status	Published - 9 Sept 2016

Bibliographical note

Acknowledgments:
This paper originates from the “Ecological Interactions and Range Evolution Under Environmental Change” and “RangeShifter” working groups, supported by the Synthesis Centre of the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DFG-FZT-118), DIVERSITAS, and its core projects bioDISCOVERY and bioGENESIS. Supported by the Canada Research Chair, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science (A.G.); the University of Florida Foundation (R.D.H.); KU Leuven Research Fund grant PF/2010/07, ERA-Net BiodivERsA TIPPINGPOND, and Belspo IAP SPEEDY (L.D.M.); European Union Biodiversity Observation Network grant EU-BON-FP7-308454 (J.-B.M. and G.P.); KU Leuven Research Fund (J.P.); and NSF grants DEB-1119877 and PLR-1417754 and the McDonnell Foundation (M.C.U.).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

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10.1126/science.aad8466Licence: Unspecified

Accepted Manuscript
This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science Volume 353, Sep 2016, DOI: 10.1126/science.aad8466
Accepted author manuscript, 1.47 MBLicence: Unspecified

Cite this

Urban, M. C., Bocedi, G., Hendry, A. P., Mihoub, J. B., Pe'er, G., Singer, A., Bridle, J. R., Crozier, L. G., De Meester, L., Godsoe, W., Gonzalez, A., Hellmann, J. J., Holt, R. D., Huth, A., Johst, K., Krug, C. B., Leadley, P. W., Palmer, S. C. F., Pantel, J. H., ... Travis, J. M. J. (2016). Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change. Science, 353(6304), Article aad8466. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466

Urban, MC, Bocedi, G, Hendry, AP, Mihoub, JB, Pe'er, G, Singer, A, Bridle, JR, Crozier, LG, De Meester, L, Godsoe, W, Gonzalez, A, Hellmann, JJ, Holt, RD, Huth, A, Johst, K, Krug, CB, Leadley, PW, Palmer, SCF, Pantel, JH, Schmitz, A, Zollner, PA & Travis, JMJ 2016, 'Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change', Science, vol. 353, no. 6304, aad8466. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466

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abstract = "New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species{\textquoteright} responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.",

author = "Urban, \{M. C.\} and G. Bocedi and Hendry, \{A. P.\} and Mihoub, \{J. B.\} and G. Pe'er and A. Singer and Bridle, \{J. R.\} and Crozier, \{L. G.\} and \{De Meester\}, L. and W. Godsoe and A. Gonzalez and Hellmann, \{J. J.\} and Holt, \{R. D.\} and A. Huth and K. Johst and Krug, \{C. B.\} and Leadley, \{P. W.\} and Palmer, \{S. C. F.\} and Pantel, \{J. H.\} and A. Schmitz and Zollner, \{P. A.\} and Travis, \{J. M. J.\}",

note = "Acknowledgments: This paper originates from the {\textquotedblleft}Ecological Interactions and Range Evolution Under Environmental Change{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}RangeShifter{\textquotedblright} working groups, supported by the Synthesis Centre of the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DFG-FZT-118), DIVERSITAS, and its core projects bioDISCOVERY and bioGENESIS. Supported by the Canada Research Chair, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science (A.G.); the University of Florida Foundation (R.D.H.); KU Leuven Research Fund grant PF/2010/07, ERA-Net BiodivERsA TIPPINGPOND, and Belspo IAP SPEEDY (L.D.M.); European Union Biodiversity Observation Network grant EU-BON-FP7-308454 (J.-B.M. and G.P.); KU Leuven Research Fund (J.P.); and NSF grants DEB-1119877 and PLR-1417754 and the McDonnell Foundation (M.C.U.).",

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AU - Singer, A.

AU - Bridle, J. R.

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AU - Gonzalez, A.

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AU - Holt, R. D.

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AU - Johst, K.

AU - Krug, C. B.

AU - Leadley, P. W.

AU - Palmer, S. C. F.

AU - Pantel, J. H.

AU - Schmitz, A.

AU - Zollner, P. A.

AU - Travis, J. M. J.

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N2 - New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

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M1 - aad8466

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Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

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