PopFor: A new model for estimating poplar yields

Dagmar N Henner* (Corresponding Author), Astley Hastings, Mark Pogson, Niall McNamara, Christian A. Davies, Pete Smith

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

Lignocellulosic bioenergy crops are a potential option for climate mitigation and for meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement in Europe. The PopFor process-based model has been developed based on the earlier MiscanFor model and parameterised for poplar using data from a literature review in combination with experimental data on high performing clones Max 1, 3, 4 for extensively and intensively managed sites in Germany. PopFor needs comparatively few input data to provide accurate estimates of biomass yield. The parameters found allowed a good match to measured values. The best fit for bud emergence is 81 °days (base 5), with leaf emergence at 463 °days (base 5) and the temperature at which photosynthesis slows is 28 °C. Maximum radiation use efficiency was set to 2.9 gMJ−1. The air temperature threshold that kills crop was set at −37 °C with the number of days below this threshold that kills the crop set at 90 days. 30 days below wiltpoint was set as a threshold that kills the crop from drought. It was found that plant available water was the key explanatory variable in predicting yield and access to groundwater explained 97% of the yield variation between the sites. The results show that the model estimates the yield of poplar after the establishment phase with a mean difference of 0.27 DM t ha−1 y−1 (r2 0.99, n29, F = 4.18, p < 0.05 with RMSE = 19.68%). PopFor was shown to be an effective model for predicting yields under different soil conditions.
Original languageEnglish
Article number105470
Number of pages15
JournalBiomass & Bioenergy
Volume134
Early online date7 Feb 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2020

Bibliographical note

Yield and soil data for this project has been supplied by Rainer Schlepphorst, Holger Hartmann and Dieter Murach from HNEE, Germany, from the BIODEM project. Soil water and groundwater data were supplied by Markus Schmidt, HNEE, Germany. We would like to thank Shell and the University of Aberdeen CLSM for funding this work with a studentship. The MiscanFor modelling was supported by UK NERC ADVENT (NE/1806209) and FAB-GGR (NE/P019951/1) project funding.

Keywords

  • PopFor
  • poplar
  • bioenergy crop
  • process-based model
  • yield
  • parameterisation
  • Parameterisation
  • Poplar
  • Yield
  • Process-based model
  • Bioenergy crop
  • WATER-USE
  • LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS
  • USE EFFICIENCY
  • VS. 2ND ROTATION
  • SHORT-ROTATION COPPICE
  • LIGHT INTERCEPTION
  • ACTIVE ZONE
  • GENETIC-IMPROVEMENT
  • PHYSIOLOGICAL TRAITS
  • ENERGY CROPS

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