Pre-operative indicators for mortality following hip fracture surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Toby Smith, Kelum Pelpola, Martin Ball, Alice Ong, Phyo Kyaw Myint

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280 Citations (Scopus)


OBJECTIVE: hip fracture is a common and serious condition associated with high mortality. This study aimed to identify pre-operative characteristics which are associated with an increased risk of mortality after hip fracture surgery.

DESIGN: systematic search of published and unpublished literature databases, including EMBASE, MEDLINE, AMED, CINAHL, PubMed and the Cochrane Library, was undertaken to identify all clinical studies on pre-operative predictors of mortality after surgery in hip fracture with at least 3-month follow-up. Data pertaining to the study objectives was extracted by two reviewers independently. Where study homogeneity was evidence, a meta-analysis of pooled relative risk and 95% confidence intervals was performed for mortality against pre-admission characteristics.

RESULTS: fifty-three studies including 544,733 participants were included. Thirteen characteristics were identified as possible pre-operative indicators for mortality. Following meta-analysis, the four key characteristics associated with the risk of mortality up to 12 months were abnormal ECG (RR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.45, 2.76), cognitive impairment (RR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.35, 2.70), age >85 years (RR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.90) and pre-fracture mobility (RR: 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.34). Other statistically significant pre-fracture predictors of increased mortality were male gender, being resident in a care institution, intra-capsular fracture type, high ASA grade and high Charlson comorbidity score on admission.

CONCLUSIONS: this review has identified the characteristics of patients with a high risk of mortality after a hip fracture surgery beyond the peri-operative period who may benefit from comprehensive assessment and appropriate management.


Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)464-471
Number of pages8
JournalAge and Ageing
Issue number4
Early online date3 Jun 2014
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2014

Bibliographical note

© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:


  • elderly
  • femoral fracture
  • mortality
  • older people
  • prognostic indicators
  • risk factors
  • systematic review


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