Abstract
Aim: To provide preliminary high-level modelling estimates of the impact of denicotinisation of tobacco on changes in smoking prevalence in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).
Methods: An Excel spreadsheet was populated with smoking/vaping prevalence data from the NZ Health Survey and business-as-usual trends projected. Using various parameters from the literature (NZ trial data, NZ EASE-ITC Study results), we modelled the impact of denicotinisation of tobacco (with no other tobacco permitted for sale) out to 2025, the year of this country’s Smokefree Goal. Scenario 1 used estimates from a published expert knowledge elicitation process, and Scenario 2 considered the addition of extra mass media campaign and quitline support to the base case.
Results: With the denicotinisation intervention, adult daily smoking prevalences were all estimated to decline to under 5% in 2025 for non-Māori and in one scenario for Māori (Indigenous population) (2.5% in Scenario 1). However, prevalence did not fall below five percent in the base case for Māori (7.7%) or with Scenario 2 (5.2%). In the base case, vaping was estimated to increase to 7.9% in the adult population in 2025, and up to 10.7% in one scenario (Scenario 1).
Conclusions: This preliminary, high-level modelling suggests a mandated denicotinisation policy for could provide a realistic chance of achieving the NZ Government’s Smokefree 2025 Goal. The probability of success would further increase if supplemented with other interventions such as mass media campaigns with Quitline support (especially if targeted for a predominantly Māori audience). Nevertheless, there is much uncertainty with these preliminary high-level results and more sophisticated modelling is highly desirable.
Methods: An Excel spreadsheet was populated with smoking/vaping prevalence data from the NZ Health Survey and business-as-usual trends projected. Using various parameters from the literature (NZ trial data, NZ EASE-ITC Study results), we modelled the impact of denicotinisation of tobacco (with no other tobacco permitted for sale) out to 2025, the year of this country’s Smokefree Goal. Scenario 1 used estimates from a published expert knowledge elicitation process, and Scenario 2 considered the addition of extra mass media campaign and quitline support to the base case.
Results: With the denicotinisation intervention, adult daily smoking prevalences were all estimated to decline to under 5% in 2025 for non-Māori and in one scenario for Māori (Indigenous population) (2.5% in Scenario 1). However, prevalence did not fall below five percent in the base case for Māori (7.7%) or with Scenario 2 (5.2%). In the base case, vaping was estimated to increase to 7.9% in the adult population in 2025, and up to 10.7% in one scenario (Scenario 1).
Conclusions: This preliminary, high-level modelling suggests a mandated denicotinisation policy for could provide a realistic chance of achieving the NZ Government’s Smokefree 2025 Goal. The probability of success would further increase if supplemented with other interventions such as mass media campaigns with Quitline support (especially if targeted for a predominantly Māori audience). Nevertheless, there is much uncertainty with these preliminary high-level results and more sophisticated modelling is highly desirable.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Publisher | MedRxiv |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 23 Aug 2021 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Bibliographical note
The Excel file with the data and modelling results is available on request of the authors.Funding
The authors thank the Health Research Council of NZ (Grant 10/248) for support with developing the BODE3 tobacco control model, which has helped provide relevant background parameters for the work in this particular report.
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| Health Research Council of New Zealand | 10/248 |
