TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognostic value of the postcoital test for spontaneous pregnancy
AU - Leushuis, Esther
AU - Van Der Steeg, Jan Willem
AU - Steures, Pieternel
AU - Koks, Carolien
AU - Oosterhuis, Jur
AU - Bourdrez, Petra
AU - Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.
AU - Van Der Veen, Fulco
AU - Mol, Ben Willem J.
AU - Hompes, Peter G.A.
PY - 2011/5/1
Y1 - 2011/5/1
N2 - Objective: To evaluate the capacity of the postcoital test (PCT) to predict spontaneous pregnancy in a large cohort study of subfertile couples. Design: Prospective study. Setting: Department of reproductive medicine of 38 hospitals in the Netherlands. Patient(s): Between January 2002 and February 2004, we prospectively included consecutive subfertile couples who had not been evaluated previously for subfertility. Intervention(s): We estimated the contribution of the PCT result to the existing prediction model for spontaneous pregnancy by calculating the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of an abnormal PCT result. We constructed a second prediction model (PCT model) based on the reference model including the PCT. Main Outcome Measure(s): Primary endpoint in this study was ongoing pregnancy. We evaluated the performance of the PCT model in comparison with the reference model by calculating goodness of fit, discrimination, calibration, and the "net reclassification improvement". Result(s): We included 3,021 couples of whom 537 (18%) had a spontaneous pregnancy and 55 (1.8%) a nonsuccessful pregnancy; 1,316 (44%) started treatment within 12 months, 824 (27%) neither started treatment nor became pregnant, and 289 (10%) became lost to follow-up within 12 months. The adjusted HR for an abnormal PCT was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62 to 0.94). The adjusted HR for an abnormal PCT was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.84) in case of no spermatozoa, 0.81 (95% CI: 0.57 to 1.2) in case of nonmotile spermatozoa, and 1.2 (95% CI: 0.8 to 1.8) in case of motile, nonprogressive spermatozoa. Adding the PCT result to the reference model did not improve goodness of fit. Discrimination was equally poor for the PCT model and the reference model. The calibration plots of both models showed comparably good calibration. The net reclassification improvement of the predictions of the PCT model compared with the reference model was -1.1%. Conclusion(s): This study demonstrated that the PCT has prognostic value but does not add substantially to a prognostic model for spontaneous pregnancy.
AB - Objective: To evaluate the capacity of the postcoital test (PCT) to predict spontaneous pregnancy in a large cohort study of subfertile couples. Design: Prospective study. Setting: Department of reproductive medicine of 38 hospitals in the Netherlands. Patient(s): Between January 2002 and February 2004, we prospectively included consecutive subfertile couples who had not been evaluated previously for subfertility. Intervention(s): We estimated the contribution of the PCT result to the existing prediction model for spontaneous pregnancy by calculating the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of an abnormal PCT result. We constructed a second prediction model (PCT model) based on the reference model including the PCT. Main Outcome Measure(s): Primary endpoint in this study was ongoing pregnancy. We evaluated the performance of the PCT model in comparison with the reference model by calculating goodness of fit, discrimination, calibration, and the "net reclassification improvement". Result(s): We included 3,021 couples of whom 537 (18%) had a spontaneous pregnancy and 55 (1.8%) a nonsuccessful pregnancy; 1,316 (44%) started treatment within 12 months, 824 (27%) neither started treatment nor became pregnant, and 289 (10%) became lost to follow-up within 12 months. The adjusted HR for an abnormal PCT was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62 to 0.94). The adjusted HR for an abnormal PCT was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.84) in case of no spermatozoa, 0.81 (95% CI: 0.57 to 1.2) in case of nonmotile spermatozoa, and 1.2 (95% CI: 0.8 to 1.8) in case of motile, nonprogressive spermatozoa. Adding the PCT result to the reference model did not improve goodness of fit. Discrimination was equally poor for the PCT model and the reference model. The calibration plots of both models showed comparably good calibration. The net reclassification improvement of the predictions of the PCT model compared with the reference model was -1.1%. Conclusion(s): This study demonstrated that the PCT has prognostic value but does not add substantially to a prognostic model for spontaneous pregnancy.
KW - hazard ratio
KW - net reclassification improvement
KW - Postcoital test
KW - prediction model
KW - prognosis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79955006775&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2011.02.038
DO - 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2011.02.038
M3 - Article
C2 - 21444078
AN - SCOPUS:79955006775
SN - 0015-0282
VL - 95
SP - 2050
EP - 2055
JO - Fertility and Sterility
JF - Fertility and Sterility
IS - 6
ER -