Within-person associations between psychological and contextual factors and lapse incidence in smokers attempting to quit: A systematic review and meta-analysis of Ecological Momentary Assessment studies

Aims
When attempting to stop smoking, discrete smoking events (‘lapses’) are strongly associated with a return to regular smoking (‘relapse’). No study has yet pooled the psychological and contextual antecedents of lapse incidence, captured in ecological momentary assessment (EMA) studies. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to synthesize within-person psychological and contextual predictor–lapse associations in smokers attempting to quit.

Methods
We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and Web of Science. A narrative synthesis and multi-level, random-effects meta-analyses were conducted, focusing on studies of adult, non-clinical populations attempting to stop smoking, with no restrictions on setting. Outcomes were the association between a psychological (e.g. stress, cravings) or contextual (e.g. cigarette availability) antecedent and smoking lapse incidence; definitions of ‘lapse’ and ‘relapse’; the theoretical underpinning of EMA study designs; and the proportion of studies with pre-registered study protocols/analysis plans and open data.

Results
We included 61 studies, with 19 studies contributing ≥ 1 effect size(s) to the meta-analyses. We found positive relationships between lapse incidence and ‘environmental and social cues’ [k = 12, odds ratio (OR) = 4.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.02, 10.16, P = 0.001] and ‘cravings’ (k = 10, OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.34, 2.18, P 
Conclusions
In smokers attempting to stop, environmental and social cues and cravings appear to be key within-person antecedents of smoking lapse incidence. Due to low study quality, the confidence in these estimates is reduced.