TY - JOUR
T1 - A novel Grey Bernoulli model for short-term natural gas consumption forecasting
AU - Wu, Wending
AU - Ma, Xin
AU - Zeng, Bo
AU - Lv, Wangyong
AU - Wang, Yong
AU - Li, Wanpeng
N1 - This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71901184, 71771033, 71571157, 11601357), the Humanities and Social Science Project of Ministry of Education of China (No.19YJCZH119), the National Statistical Scientific Research Project (N0.2018LY42), the Applied Basic Research Program of Science and Technology Commission Foundation of Sichuan province (2017JY0159), the funding of V.C. & V.R. Key Lab of Sichuan Province (SCVCVR2018.08VS, SCVCVR2019.05VS), and the Open Fund (PLN 201710) of State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation (Southwest Petroleum University).
PY - 2020/8
Y1 - 2020/8
N2 - This paper investigates the natural gas consumption of the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and Japan by a new Grey Bernoulli model. Analytical formulations of the time response function, restored values, and linear parameters estimation are derived. Further, the nonlinear parameter is determined by the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm based on the linearized form of the model. Three numerical cases are considered to verify the effectiveness of the model. Finally, with observations from 2005 to 2017 claimed by British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, this new model is built to compute the natural gas consumption of the selected countries from 2018 to 2022. The numerical results show that the natural gas consumption will be increasing in the coming years.
AB - This paper investigates the natural gas consumption of the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and Japan by a new Grey Bernoulli model. Analytical formulations of the time response function, restored values, and linear parameters estimation are derived. Further, the nonlinear parameter is determined by the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm based on the linearized form of the model. Three numerical cases are considered to verify the effectiveness of the model. Finally, with observations from 2005 to 2017 claimed by British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, this new model is built to compute the natural gas consumption of the selected countries from 2018 to 2022. The numerical results show that the natural gas consumption will be increasing in the coming years.
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0307904X2030189X
U2 - 10.1016/j.apm.2020.04.006
DO - 10.1016/j.apm.2020.04.006
M3 - Article
SN - 0307-904X
VL - 84
SP - 393
EP - 404
JO - Applied Mathematical Modelling
JF - Applied Mathematical Modelling
ER -