Abstract
Agroecology has been proposed as a strategy to improve food system sustainability, but has also been criticised for using land inefficiently. We compared five explorative storylines, developed in a stakeholder process, for future food systems in the EU to 2050. We modelled a range of biophysical (e.g., land use and food production), environmental (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions) and social indicators, and potential for regional food self-sufficiency, and investigated the economic policy needed to reach these futures by 2050. Two contrasting storylines for upscaling agroecological practices emerged. In one, agroecology was implemented to produce high-value products serving high-income consumers through trade but, despite 40% of agricultural area being
under organic management, only two out of eight EU environmental policy targets were met. As diets followed current trends in this storyline, there were few improvements in environmental indicators compared with the current situation, despite large-scale implementation of agroecological farming practices. This suggests that large-scale implementation of agroecological
practices without concurrent changes on the demand side could aggravate existing environmental pressures. However, our second agroecological storyline showed that if large-scale diffusion of agroecological farming practices were implemented alongside drastic dietary change and waste reductions, major improvements on environmental indicators could be achieved and all relevant EU policy targets met. An alternative storyline comprising sustainable intensification in combination with dietary change and waste reductions was efficient in meeting targets related to climate, biodiversity, ammonia emissions, and use of antibiotics, but did not meet targets for reductions in pesticide and fertiliser use. These results confirm the importance of dietary change for food system climate mitigation. Economic modelling showed a need for drastic changes in consumer preferences towards more plant-based, agroecological and local foods, and for
improvements in technology, for these storylines to be realised, as very high taxes and tariffs would otherwise be needed.
under organic management, only two out of eight EU environmental policy targets were met. As diets followed current trends in this storyline, there were few improvements in environmental indicators compared with the current situation, despite large-scale implementation of agroecological farming practices. This suggests that large-scale implementation of agroecological
practices without concurrent changes on the demand side could aggravate existing environmental pressures. However, our second agroecological storyline showed that if large-scale diffusion of agroecological farming practices were implemented alongside drastic dietary change and waste reductions, major improvements on environmental indicators could be achieved and all relevant EU policy targets met. An alternative storyline comprising sustainable intensification in combination with dietary change and waste reductions was efficient in meeting targets related to climate, biodiversity, ammonia emissions, and use of antibiotics, but did not meet targets for reductions in pesticide and fertiliser use. These results confirm the importance of dietary change for food system climate mitigation. Economic modelling showed a need for drastic changes in consumer preferences towards more plant-based, agroecological and local foods, and for
improvements in technology, for these storylines to be realised, as very high taxes and tariffs would otherwise be needed.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 157612 |
| Number of pages | 17 |
| Journal | Science of the Total Environment |
| Volume | 847 |
| Early online date | 30 Jul 2022 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 15 Nov 2022 |
Bibliographical note
AcknowledgementsThis scenario work was developed as part of the Uniseco project (https://uniseco-project.eu/), an EU funded research project (Grant Agreement No. 773901), involving 17 partners across 15 EU member states, aiming to develop innovative approaches to enhance understanding of socio966 economic and policy drivers and barriers to further development and implementation of agroecological practices in EU farming systems. Our thanks to all stakeholder and project partners who contributed to development of the storylines.
Data Availability Statement
Data will be made available on request.Keywords
- food systems
- livestock
- climate change
- biodiversity
- Farm-to-fork
- New Green Deal
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