Bayesian fitting of probabilistic maturation reaction norms to population-level data

Bruce J. McAdam; C. Tara Marshall

doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2014.05.014

Bayesian fitting of probabilistic maturation reaction norms to population-level data

Bruce J. McAdam^*, C. Tara Marshall

^*Corresponding author for this work

University of Stirling

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs) are an important tool for studying fisheries-induced evolution and environmental effects on life history. To date there has been no way to fit a PMRN to population-level fisheries data; instead individual-level data must be used. This limits the stocks and time periods that can be studied.

We introduce a Bayesian method for fitting PMRNs to population-level data. The method is verified against both an existing result and simulated data, and applied to historical Barents Sea cod data which combines observations of population-level variation in age, size and maturity status from Russia and Norway.

The method shows a clear and rapid trend towards greater probability of maturation at smaller lengths in the Barents Sea cod.

The new model fitting algorithm allows us to study historic changes in life history despite the lack of individual-level data seen in much long term data. Access to more data will aid the study of evolutionary hypotheses in a wide range of organisms. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	105-113
Number of pages	9
Journal	Fisheries Research
Volume	159
Early online date	5 Jul 2014
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2014.05.014
Publication status	Published - Nov 2014

Bibliographical note

Date of Acceptance: 14/05/2014

Acknowledgements
Data were provided by N. Yaragina and S. Kraak. F. Neat and M. Heino commented on earlier versions of this manuscript. Funding support was provided by the European Community (Contract No. 022717 [SSP8]). This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions. We are grateful to the editor and anonymous reviewer of this manuscript for their suggestions.

Keywords

Bayesian
fisheries-induced evolution
maturation
reaction norm
life-history traits
poecilia-reticulata
fish stocks
age
evolution
size
maturity
cod
plasticity
selection

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.fishres.2014.05.014

Cite this

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title = "Bayesian fitting of probabilistic maturation reaction norms to population-level data",

abstract = "Probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs) are an important tool for studying fisheries-induced evolution and environmental effects on life history. To date there has been no way to fit a PMRN to population-level fisheries data; instead individual-level data must be used. This limits the stocks and time periods that can be studied.We introduce a Bayesian method for fitting PMRNs to population-level data. The method is verified against both an existing result and simulated data, and applied to historical Barents Sea cod data which combines observations of population-level variation in age, size and maturity status from Russia and Norway.The method shows a clear and rapid trend towards greater probability of maturation at smaller lengths in the Barents Sea cod.The new model fitting algorithm allows us to study historic changes in life history despite the lack of individual-level data seen in much long term data. Access to more data will aid the study of evolutionary hypotheses in a wide range of organisms. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",

keywords = "Bayesian, fisheries-induced evolution, maturation, reaction norm, life-history traits, poecilia-reticulata, fish stocks, age, evolution, size, maturity, cod, plasticity, selection ",

author = "McAdam, {Bruce J.} and Marshall, {C. Tara}",

note = "Date of Acceptance: 14/05/2014 Acknowledgements Data were provided by N. Yaragina and S. Kraak. F. Neat and M. Heino commented on earlier versions of this manuscript. Funding support was provided by the European Community (Contract No. 022717 [SSP8]). This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions. We are grateful to the editor and anonymous reviewer of this manuscript for their suggestions. ",

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doi = "10.1016/j.fishres.2014.05.014",

language = "English",

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AU - Marshall, C. Tara

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PY - 2014/11

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N2 - Probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs) are an important tool for studying fisheries-induced evolution and environmental effects on life history. To date there has been no way to fit a PMRN to population-level fisheries data; instead individual-level data must be used. This limits the stocks and time periods that can be studied.We introduce a Bayesian method for fitting PMRNs to population-level data. The method is verified against both an existing result and simulated data, and applied to historical Barents Sea cod data which combines observations of population-level variation in age, size and maturity status from Russia and Norway.The method shows a clear and rapid trend towards greater probability of maturation at smaller lengths in the Barents Sea cod.The new model fitting algorithm allows us to study historic changes in life history despite the lack of individual-level data seen in much long term data. Access to more data will aid the study of evolutionary hypotheses in a wide range of organisms. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

AB - Probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs) are an important tool for studying fisheries-induced evolution and environmental effects on life history. To date there has been no way to fit a PMRN to population-level fisheries data; instead individual-level data must be used. This limits the stocks and time periods that can be studied.We introduce a Bayesian method for fitting PMRNs to population-level data. The method is verified against both an existing result and simulated data, and applied to historical Barents Sea cod data which combines observations of population-level variation in age, size and maturity status from Russia and Norway.The method shows a clear and rapid trend towards greater probability of maturation at smaller lengths in the Barents Sea cod.The new model fitting algorithm allows us to study historic changes in life history despite the lack of individual-level data seen in much long term data. Access to more data will aid the study of evolutionary hypotheses in a wide range of organisms. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

KW - Bayesian

KW - fisheries-induced evolution

KW - maturation

KW - reaction norm

KW - life-history traits

KW - poecilia-reticulata

KW - fish stocks

KW - age

KW - evolution

KW - size

KW - maturity

KW - cod

KW - plasticity

KW - selection

U2 - 10.1016/j.fishres.2014.05.014

DO - 10.1016/j.fishres.2014.05.014

M3 - Article

SN - 0165-7836

VL - 159

SP - 105

EP - 113

JO - Fisheries Research

JF - Fisheries Research

ER -

Bayesian fitting of probabilistic maturation reaction norms to population-level data

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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