Abstract
Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 1337-1350 |
Number of pages | 14 |
Journal | Ecology Letters |
Volume | 20 |
Issue number | 10 |
Early online date | 17 Aug 2017 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Oct 2017 |
Bibliographical note
AcknowledgementsThis study is a contribution of the Invasion Dynamics Network (InDyNet), funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG; JE 288/8-1). Additional support came from DFG projects JE 288/9-1 (JMJ) and SU 623/1-1 (SH); Czech Science Foundation projects 17-19025S, 14-36079G (Centre of Excellence PLADIAS), long-term research development project RVO 67985939, and Praemium Academiae award from The Czech Academy of Sciences (PP, JP); the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (IJ); the US Long-Term Ecological Research Network (AL); the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies (CJ, DS); the U.S. National Science Foundation's LTREB program; and Austrian Science Foundation grant I2096-B16 (FE). We are grateful to Claudia Wiedner and other workshop participants for ideas, inspiration, and constructive criticism, to Shannon LaDeau for helpful advice, and to Kevin Aagaard for providing code for the Bayesian analysis.
Keywords
- alien species
- biological invasions
- concepts
- exotic species
- invasive species
- long-term
- management
- non-native species
- population collapse
- population crash
- population dynamics
- reckless invaders
- systematic review