Changes in the relationship between asthma and associated risk factors over fifty years

Maxwell S Barnish; Nara Tagiyeva; Graham Devereux; Lorna Aucott; Steve Turner

doi:10.1111/pai.12674

Changes in the relationship between asthma and associated risk factors over fifty years

Maxwell S Barnish, Nara Tagiyeva, Graham Devereux, Lorna Aucott, Steve Turner

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Childhood asthma is a common condition whose prevalence is changing. We hypothesised that the relationship between asthma and associated risk factors has changed over a 50-year period.

METHODS: An ecological study design was used. Children aged 8-13 attending schools in Aberdeen city were surveyed on seven occasions between 1964 and 2014. The following were determined: history of asthma, history of eczema, parental smoking, parental asthma, sex and socioeconomic status. Analysis was by a structural change model with two knots. The outcome reported was the change in odds ratio between asthma and a given risk factor during a given period.

RESULTS: There were 23,241 questionnaires distributed and 17,439 returned (75%). The odds ratio (OR) for a child with asthma to have eczema increased between 1989 and 1999 by 1.031 [95% CI 1.028, 1.035] and by 1.042 between 2004 and 2014 [1.038, 1.047].The OR for a child with asthma to have a parent who smoked rose by 1.032 [1.028, 1.036] between 1989 and 1999 and by 1.043 [1.038, 1.047] between 2004 and2014), and to have a parent with asthma (1.027 [1.022, 1.031] for 1994-99 and 1.042 [1.037, 1.048] for 2004-2014). The OR for a child with asthma being male and being from the most deprived communities also rose between 1989-1999 and 2004-2014.

CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between asthma prevalence and particular risk factors changed over the 50 year period of study and this might reflect changes in children's environment and/or susceptibility. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	162-169
Number of pages	8
Journal	Pediatric Allergy & Immunology
Volume	28
Issue number	2
Early online date	23 Feb 2017
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/pai.12674
Publication status	Published - Mar 2017

Bibliographical note

We acknowledge our funders Chest Heart and Stroke Scotland (grant number R14/A155) and a private donation from the family of Blanche Dawson, who conducted the 1964 Aberdeen Schools Asthma Survey. We thank the investigators of all past ASAS studies whose data we used in our analysis. Some of these past studies received funding from Allen and Hanburys, Astra and Novartis.

Keywords

asthma
atopy
child health
environmental epidemiology
smoking

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Accepted Manuscript
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Barnish MS, Tagiyeva N, Devereux G, Aucott L, Turner S. Changes in the relationship between asthma and associated risk factors over fifty years. Pediatr Allergy Immunol 2017: 28: 162–169., which has been published in final form at DOI: 10.1111/pai.12674. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
Accepted author manuscript, 613 KBLicence: Unspecified
Supplementary table 1Accepted author manuscript, 216 KBLicence: Unspecified
Supplementary table 2 R2Accepted author manuscript, 212 KBLicence: Unspecified
Supplementary figure 1Accepted author manuscript, 181 KBLicence: Unspecified
Figure 1Accepted author manuscript, 3.52 MBLicence: Unspecified
Figure 2Accepted author manuscript, 8.06 MBLicence: Unspecified

Cite this

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title = "Changes in the relationship between asthma and associated risk factors over fifty years",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Childhood asthma is a common condition whose prevalence is changing. We hypothesised that the relationship between asthma and associated risk factors has changed over a 50-year period.METHODS: An ecological study design was used. Children aged 8-13 attending schools in Aberdeen city were surveyed on seven occasions between 1964 and 2014. The following were determined: history of asthma, history of eczema, parental smoking, parental asthma, sex and socioeconomic status. Analysis was by a structural change model with two knots. The outcome reported was the change in odds ratio between asthma and a given risk factor during a given period.RESULTS: There were 23,241 questionnaires distributed and 17,439 returned (75%). The odds ratio (OR) for a child with asthma to have eczema increased between 1989 and 1999 by 1.031 [95% CI 1.028, 1.035] and by 1.042 between 2004 and 2014 [1.038, 1.047].The OR for a child with asthma to have a parent who smoked rose by 1.032 [1.028, 1.036] between 1989 and 1999 and by 1.043 [1.038, 1.047] between 2004 and2014), and to have a parent with asthma (1.027 [1.022, 1.031] for 1994-99 and 1.042 [1.037, 1.048] for 2004-2014). The OR for a child with asthma being male and being from the most deprived communities also rose between 1989-1999 and 2004-2014.CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between asthma prevalence and particular risk factors changed over the 50 year period of study and this might reflect changes in children's environment and/or susceptibility. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.",

keywords = "asthma, atopy, child health, environmental epidemiology, smoking",

author = "Barnish, {Maxwell S} and Nara Tagiyeva and Graham Devereux and Lorna Aucott and Steve Turner",

note = "We acknowledge our funders Chest Heart and Stroke Scotland (grant number R14/A155) and a private donation from the family of Blanche Dawson, who conducted the 1964 Aberdeen Schools Asthma Survey. We thank the investigators of all past ASAS studies whose data we used in our analysis. Some of these past studies received funding from Allen and Hanburys, Astra and Novartis. ",

year = "2017",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1111/pai.12674",

language = "English",

volume = "28",

pages = "162--169",

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AU - Barnish, Maxwell S

AU - Tagiyeva, Nara

AU - Devereux, Graham

AU - Aucott, Lorna

AU - Turner, Steve

N1 - We acknowledge our funders Chest Heart and Stroke Scotland (grant number R14/A155) and a private donation from the family of Blanche Dawson, who conducted the 1964 Aberdeen Schools Asthma Survey. We thank the investigators of all past ASAS studies whose data we used in our analysis. Some of these past studies received funding from Allen and Hanburys, Astra and Novartis.

PY - 2017/3

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N2 - BACKGROUND: Childhood asthma is a common condition whose prevalence is changing. We hypothesised that the relationship between asthma and associated risk factors has changed over a 50-year period.METHODS: An ecological study design was used. Children aged 8-13 attending schools in Aberdeen city were surveyed on seven occasions between 1964 and 2014. The following were determined: history of asthma, history of eczema, parental smoking, parental asthma, sex and socioeconomic status. Analysis was by a structural change model with two knots. The outcome reported was the change in odds ratio between asthma and a given risk factor during a given period.RESULTS: There were 23,241 questionnaires distributed and 17,439 returned (75%). The odds ratio (OR) for a child with asthma to have eczema increased between 1989 and 1999 by 1.031 [95% CI 1.028, 1.035] and by 1.042 between 2004 and 2014 [1.038, 1.047].The OR for a child with asthma to have a parent who smoked rose by 1.032 [1.028, 1.036] between 1989 and 1999 and by 1.043 [1.038, 1.047] between 2004 and2014), and to have a parent with asthma (1.027 [1.022, 1.031] for 1994-99 and 1.042 [1.037, 1.048] for 2004-2014). The OR for a child with asthma being male and being from the most deprived communities also rose between 1989-1999 and 2004-2014.CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between asthma prevalence and particular risk factors changed over the 50 year period of study and this might reflect changes in children's environment and/or susceptibility. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

AB - BACKGROUND: Childhood asthma is a common condition whose prevalence is changing. We hypothesised that the relationship between asthma and associated risk factors has changed over a 50-year period.METHODS: An ecological study design was used. Children aged 8-13 attending schools in Aberdeen city were surveyed on seven occasions between 1964 and 2014. The following were determined: history of asthma, history of eczema, parental smoking, parental asthma, sex and socioeconomic status. Analysis was by a structural change model with two knots. The outcome reported was the change in odds ratio between asthma and a given risk factor during a given period.RESULTS: There were 23,241 questionnaires distributed and 17,439 returned (75%). The odds ratio (OR) for a child with asthma to have eczema increased between 1989 and 1999 by 1.031 [95% CI 1.028, 1.035] and by 1.042 between 2004 and 2014 [1.038, 1.047].The OR for a child with asthma to have a parent who smoked rose by 1.032 [1.028, 1.036] between 1989 and 1999 and by 1.043 [1.038, 1.047] between 2004 and2014), and to have a parent with asthma (1.027 [1.022, 1.031] for 1994-99 and 1.042 [1.037, 1.048] for 2004-2014). The OR for a child with asthma being male and being from the most deprived communities also rose between 1989-1999 and 2004-2014.CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between asthma prevalence and particular risk factors changed over the 50 year period of study and this might reflect changes in children's environment and/or susceptibility. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

KW - asthma

KW - atopy

KW - child health

KW - environmental epidemiology

KW - smoking

U2 - 10.1111/pai.12674

DO - 10.1111/pai.12674

M3 - Article

C2 - 27779796

SN - 0905-6157

VL - 28

SP - 162

EP - 169

JO - Pediatric Allergy & Immunology

JF - Pediatric Allergy & Immunology

IS - 2

ER -

Changes in the relationship between asthma and associated risk factors over fifty years

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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