Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070

I. A. Romanenko, V. A. Romanenkov, P. Smith, J. U. Smith, O. D. Sirotenko, N. V. Lisovoi, L. K. Shevtsova, D. I. Rukhovich, P. V. Koroleva

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Citations (Scopus)


This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures, paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000-2070 based on linking the effects of global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)63-77
Number of pages15
JournalRegional Environmental Change
Issue number2
Early online date25 May 2007
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2007


  • sustainable agriculture
  • economic model
  • soil organic carbon
  • adaptation
  • climate change
  • soil organic-matter
  • land-use change
  • carbon sequestration
  • climate-change
  • vulnerability
  • dynamics


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