Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model of Mortality in PD

Angus Macleod, Ingvild Dalen, Ole-Bjorn Tysnes, Jan Petter Larsen, Carl Counsell

Research output: Contribution to journalAbstractpeer-review


To develop a prognostic model to predict mortality in Parkinson's disease (PD).

Prognostic models can be used for individual prediction, case-mix correction, and clinical trial design. No prognostic model has been published for use in PD.

The PINE study (198 patients) and ParkWest study (192 patients) are community-based, incidence cohorts of PD with lifelong prospective follow-up in North-East Scotland and Western Norway, respectively. In each study area, all incident cases were identified with community-based ascertainment strategies (2004–6 and 2006–9 in PINE; 2004–7 in ParkWest). Clinical predictors measured at diagnosis in the PINE cohort were combined to create a prognostic model of mortality using Weibull regression. It was externally validated by measuring calibration (observed versus predicted risk in quantiles of risk) and discrimination in the ParkWest cohort.
Original languageEnglish
Article number096
Number of pages2
JournalJournal of Neurology, Neurosurgery & Psychiatry
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2016
EventAnnual Meeting of the Association-of-British-Neurologists (ABN) - 2016 - Brighton
Duration: 17 May 201619 May 2016


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