Environmental impacts of dietary shifts in India: a modelling study using nationally-representative data

Lukasz Aleksandrowicz (Corresponding Author), Rosemary Green, Edward J. M. Joy, Francesca Harris, Jonathan Hillier, Sylvia H Vetter, Pete Smith, Bharati Kulkarni, Alan D Dangour, Andy Haines

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Abstract

Food production is a major driver of environmental change, and unhealthy diets are the leading cause of global disease burden. In high-income countries (HICs), modelling studies suggest that adoption of healthy diets could improve population health and reduce environmental footprints associated with food production. We assessed whether such benefits from dietary change could occur in India, where under-nutrition and overweight and obesity are simultaneously prevalent. We calculated the potential changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, blue and green water footprints (WFs), and land use (LU), that would result from shifting current national food consumption patterns in India to healthy diets (meeting dietary guidelines) and to “affluent diets” (those consumed by the wealthiest quartile of households, which may represent future purchasing power and nutritional trajectories). Dietary data were derived from
the 2012 nationally-representative household expenditure survey, and we assessed dietary scenarios nationally and across six Indian sub-regions, by rural or urban location, and for those consuming above or below recommended
dietary energy intakes. We modelled the changes in consumption of 34 food groups necessary to meet Indian dietary guidelines, as well as an affluent diet representative of those in the highest wealth quartile. These changes were
combined with food-specific data on GHG emissions, calculated using the Cool Farm Tool, and WF and LU adapted from the Water Footprint Network and Food and Agriculture Organization, respectively. Shifting to healthy guidelines
nationally required a minor increase in dietary energy (3%), with larger increases in fruit (18%) and vegetable (72%) intake, though baseline proportion of dietary energy from fat and protein was adequate and did not change significantly. Meeting healthy guidelines slightly increased environmental footprints by about 3-5% across GHG emissions, blue and green WFs, and LU. However, these national averages masked substantial variation within subpopulations. For example, shifting to healthy diets among those with dietary energy intake below recommended guidelines would result in increases of 28% in GHG emissions, 18 and 34% in blue and green WFs, respectively, and 41% in LU. Decreased environmental impacts were seen among those who currently consume above recommended dietary energy (-6 to -16% across footprints). Adoption of affluent diets by the whole population would result in increases of 19-36% across the environmental indicators. Specific food groups contributing to these shifts varied by scenario. Environmental impacts also varied markedly between six major Indian sub-regions. In India, where undernutrition is prevalent, widespread adoption of healthy diets may lead to small increases in the environmental footprints of the food system relative to the status quo, although much larger increases would occur if there was widespread adoption of diets currently consumed by the wealthiest quartile of the population. To achieve lower dietrelated disease burdens and reduced environmental footprints of the food system, greater efficiency of food production and reductions in food waste are likely to be required alongside promotion of healthy diets.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)207-215
Number of pages9
JournalEnvironment International
Volume126
Early online date22 Feb 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding
LA’s studentship is funded through the Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture and Health. This study contributes to the Sustainable and Healthy Diets in India (SADHI) and the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems (SHEFS) programmes supported by the Wellcome Trust’s Our Planet, Our Health programme (grant numbers: 103932 and 205200/Z/16/Z). The funders of this study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.

Acknowledgments
LA designed the study in discussion with RG and AH, as part of his doctoral thesis. LA analysed the data and drafted the paper. EJMJ, FH, SV and JH contributed environmental footprint data. All authors were involved in critical revisions of the paper, and approved the final version. LA had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Keywords

  • India
  • dietary intake
  • sustainable diets
  • dietary guidelines
  • greenhouse gas emissions
  • land use
  • water use
  • Dietary guidelines
  • Sustainable diets
  • Water use
  • Dietary intake
  • Land use
  • Greenhouse gas emissions
  • FOOD SYSTEMS
  • GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS
  • WATER FOOTPRINT
  • CLIMATE-CHANGE
  • CROP
  • NEXUS
  • NUTRITION TRANSITION
  • HEALTH
  • CONSUMPTION

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