@techreport{4cbb8ddff531414e86c014a4519aeaae,
title = "Forecasting the oil price using house prices",
abstract = "We show that house prices from Aberdeen in the UK improve in- and out-of-sample oil price forecasts. The improvements are of a similar magnitude to those attained using macroeconomic indicators. We ex- plain these forecast improvements with the dominant role of the oil industry in Aberdeen. House prices aggregate the dispersed knowl- edge of the future oil price that exists in the city. We obtain similar empirical evidence for Houston, another city dominated by the oil in- dustry. Consistent with our explanation, we find that house prices from economically more diversified areas in the UK and the US do not improve oil price forecasts.",
keywords = "oil price forecasting, house prices, knowledge spillover",
author = "Rainer Schulz and Martin Wersing",
year = "2015",
language = "English",
series = "SFB 649 Discussion Paper",
publisher = "Humboldt-Universit{\"a}t zu Berlin",
number = "2015-041",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "Humboldt-Universit{\"a}t zu Berlin",
}