Measuring Just Transition: Indicators and scenarios for a Just Transition in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire

The North East of Scotland is at the forefront of the global energy transition. With the transformation of the UK’s energy sector over coming decades, the lives of communities and workers in the North East will be directly affected as we collectively transition to a Net Zero economy.

A Just Transition refers to a fair distribution of the burdens and benefits as society and the economy shifts to a sustainable low-carbon economy. It calls for action on providing decent green jobs, building community wealth, and embedding participation. While it is a well-established concept in the academic literature and in policy there is a notable lack of approaches and data on measuring progress towards a Just Transition. In Scotland, with Just Transition planning underway, there are calls for clarity by the Scottish Parliament, Just Transition Commission, and many stakeholders on how to evaluate progress in a place-based context.

The project ‘Just Transition for Workers and Communities in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire’ brought together an interdisciplinary team from the University of Aberdeen Just Transition Lab to identify and collate the relevant evidence, and engage with a range of local stakeholders to develop regional Just Transition indicators.

Previous work on this project produced a Rapid Evidence Assessment on how the oil and gas industry has shaped our region and what efforts and visions have emerged for a Just Transition. Based on the findings and a stakeholder knowledge-exchange event, we have developed a set of proposed indicators, supported by data and/or narrative, for a transition in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire across four themes: 1) Employment and skills, 2) Equality and wellbeing, 3) Democratic participation, and 4) Community empowerment, revitalisation and Net Zero. Some of the indicators are compiled from national/local data sets, including data on jobs and skills, fuel poverty or greenhouse gas emissions. Other indicators require further data collection and elaboration, but nevertheless represent important aspects of Just Transition in the region. These include workers’ rights protection, community ownership, participation and empowerment.

We propose four narrative scenarios as springboards for further dialogue, policy development, investment and participation on Just Transition in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire. Indicators, as proxies for evaluating progress, can be used as decision support tools, a means of informing policy, and supporting stakeholder dialogue and action as we collectively progress a Just Transition in the North East.

There are no shortcuts on a way to a Just Transition. Progress towards achieving it will require a clear articulation of vision and objectives, co-developed with all stakeholders around the table. It will require collaboration, trust, difficult conversations, and compromise as we develop a collective vision for the region. Finally, it will require strong political will, substantive policy and legal reform, public and private investment, and building of social licence as we collectively build a Net Zero future in the North East.