Prediction of mortality in community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized patients

Patrick Musonda, Prasanna Sankaran, Deepak N Subramanian, Alexandra C Smith, Philippa Prentice, Syed M Tariq, Ajay V Kamath, Phyo K Myint

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)


INTRODUCTION: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is common and associated with a significant mortality. Currently recommended criteria to assess severity of CAP could be improved.

METHODS: We derived 2 new criteria CARSI [confusion, age (<65, ≥65 to <85 or≥ 85), respiratory rate and shock index] and CARASI, where shock index is replaced by temperature-adjusted shock index based on previous observations. By using data of a prospective study performed in Norfolk and Suffolk, United Kingdom, we compare these new indices with the CURB-65 criteria.

RESULTS: A total of 190 patients were included (men, 53%). The age range was 18 to 101 years (median, 76 years). There were a total of 54 deaths during a 6-week follow-up, all within 30 days of admission. Sixty-five (34%) had severe pneumonia by CURB-65. Using CARSI and CARASI, 39 (21%) and 36 (19%) had severe pneumonia, respectively. Sensitivity was slightly less, but specificity was higher with CARSI and CARASI indices than that of CURB-65. Positive and negative predictive values in predicting death during 6-week follow-up were comparable among 3 indices examined. The receiver operating characteristic curve values (95% confidence interval) for the criteria were 0.67 (0.60-0.75) for CURB-65, 0.64 (0.60-0.71) for CARSI and 0.64 (0.57-0.71) for CARASI. Comparing receiver operating characteristic curves for CURB-65 versus CARSI, or CURB-65 versus CARASI, there was no evidence of a difference between the tools, P = 0.35 and 0.33, respectively. There was good agreement, which was strongly statistically significant (kappa = 0.56, P < 0.0001 and kappa = 0.54, P < 0.0001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS: Both CARSI and CARASI are useful in predicting deaths associated with CAP, including older patients, and may be particularly useful in the emergency and community settings.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)489-493
Number of pages5
JournalAfrican Journal of Marine Science
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2011


  • adolescent
  • adult
  • aged
  • aged, 80 and over
  • blood pressure
  • body temperature
  • cohort studies
  • community-acquired infections
  • England
  • female
  • follow-up studies
  • hospitalization
  • humans
  • male
  • middle aged
  • pneumonia
  • predictive value of tests
  • prospective studies
  • risk assessment
  • sensitivity and specificity
  • severity of illness index
  • shock
  • statistics, nonparametric
  • young adult


Dive into the research topics of 'Prediction of mortality in community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized patients'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this