Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management

Kate S. G. Gormley; Joanne S. Porter; Michael C. Bell; Angela D. Hull; William G. Sanderson

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0068263

Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management

Kate S. G. Gormley^*, Joanne S. Porter, Michael C. Bell, Angela D. Hull, William G. Sanderson

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

39 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management.

Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated.

The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080.

Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool".

Original language	English
Article number	e68263
Pages (from-to)	1-16
Number of pages	16
Journal	PloS ONE
Volume	8
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068263
Publication status	Published - 22 Jul 2013

Bibliographical note

Funding: Heriot Watt University funded the PhD research project. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to
publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1371/journal.pone.0068263Licence: CC BY

Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario
© 2013 Gormley et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Final published version, 2.85 MBLicence: CC BY

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Gormley, K. S. G., Porter, J. S., Bell, M. C., Hull, A. D., & Sanderson, W. G. (2013). Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management. PloS ONE, 8(7), 1-16. Article e68263. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068263

Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management. / Gormley, Kate S. G.; Porter, Joanne S.; Bell, Michael C. et al.
In: PloS ONE, Vol. 8, No. 7, e68263, 22.07.2013, p. 1-16.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Gormley, KSG, Porter, JS, Bell, MC, Hull, AD & Sanderson, WG 2013, 'Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management', PloS ONE, vol. 8, no. 7, e68263, pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068263

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