Risk of spontaneous preterm birth elevated after first cesarean delivery at full dilatation: a retrospective cohort study of over 30,000 women

Background: Having a cesarean delivery at full dilatation has been associated with increased subsequent risk of spontaneous preterm birth. The Aberdeen Maternity and Neonatal Databank provides a rare opportunity to study subsequent pregnancy outcomes after a previous cesarean delivery at full dilatation over 40 years, with an ability to include a detailed evaluation of potential confounding factors. Objective: This study aimed to investigate if having an initial cesarean delivery at full dilatation is associated with spontaneous preterm birth or other adverse pregnancy outcomes in the subsequent pregnancy. Study Design: A retrospective cohort study was conducted including women with a first and second pregnancy recorded within the Aberdeen Maternity and Neonatal Databank between 1976 and 2017, where previous cesarean delivery at full dilatation at term in the first birth was the exposure. The primary outcome was spontaneous preterm birth (defined as spontaneous birth <37 weeks). Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate any association between cesarean delivery at full dilatation and the odds of spontaneous preterm birth. Cesarean delivery at full dilatation in previous pregnancy was compared with: (1) any other mode of birth, and (2) individual modes of birth, including planned cesarean delivery, cesarean delivery in first stage of labor (<10-cm dilatation), and vaginal birth (including spontaneous vaginal birth, nonrotational forceps, Kielland forceps, vacuum-assisted birth, breech vaginal birth). Other outcomes such as antepartum hemorrhage and mode of second birth were also compared. Results: Of the 30,253 women included, 900 had a previous cesarean delivery at full dilatation in the first pregnancy. Women with previous cesarean delivery at full dilatation had a 3-fold increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth in a second pregnancy (unadjusted odds ratio, 2.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.82–3.81; adjusted odds ratio, 3.31; 95% confidence interval, 2.17–5.05) compared with those with all other modes of first birth, adjusted for maternal age, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, smoking, preeclampsia, antepartum hemorrhage, socioeconomic deprivation (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2016), year of birth, and interpregnancy interval (in second pregnancy). When compared with women with vaginal births only, women with cesarean delivery at full dilatation had 5-fold increased odds of spontaneous preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio, 5.37; 95% confidence interval, 3.40–8.48). Compared with first spontaneous vaginal birth, first instrumental births (nonrotational forceps, Kielland forceps, and vacuum births) were not associated with increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth in the second birth. After an initial cesarean delivery at full dilatation, 3.7% of women had a repeated cesarean delivery at full dilatation and 48% had a planned cesarean delivery in the second birth. Conclusion: This study is a substantial addition to the body of evidence on the risk of subsequent spontaneous preterm birth after cesarean delivery at full dilatation, and demonstrates a strong association between cesarean delivery at full dilatation in the first birth and spontaneous preterm birth in subsequent pregnancy, although the absolute risk remains small. This is a large retrospective cohort and includes a comprehensive assessment of potential confounding factors, including preeclampsia, antepartum hemorrhage, and lengths of first and second stage of labor. Future research should focus on understanding possible causality and developing primary and secondary preventative measures.