Spatially targeted nature-based solutions can mitigate climate change and nature loss but require a systems approach

Tom Finch; Richard B. Bradbury; Tom Bradfer-Lawrence; Graeme M. Buchanan; Joshua P. Copping; Dario Massimino; Pete Smith; Will J. Peach; Rob H. Field

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.09.005

Spatially targeted nature-based solutions can mitigate climate change and nature loss but require a systems approach

Tom Finch^* (Corresponding Author), Richard B. Bradbury, Tom Bradfer-Lawrence, Graeme M. Buchanan, Joshua P. Copping, Dario Massimino, Pete Smith, Will J. Peach, Rob H. Field

^*Corresponding author for this work

Aberdeen Centre For Environmental Sustainability

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Finite land is under pressure to provide food, timber, human infrastructure, climate change mitigation, and wildlife habitat. Given the inherent trade-offs associated with land-use choices, there is a need to assess how alternative land-use trajectories will impact the delivery of these benefits. Here, we develop nine exploratory, climate change mitigation-driven land-use scenarios for the UK. The scenario that maximized deployment of nature-based solutions reduced greenhouse gas (CO₂e) emissions from the land sector by >100% by 2050 but resulted in a 21% decline in food production. All mitigation scenarios delivered aggregate increases in habitat availability for 109 bird species (including 61 species of conservation concern), although farmland-associated species lost habitat. Our study reiterates the potential of nature-based solutions to address global climate and biodiversity challenges but also highlights risks to farmland wildlife and the importance of food system reform to mitigate potential reductions in primary food production.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1350-1374
Number of pages	25
Journal	One Earth
Volume	6
Issue number	10
Early online date	20 Oct 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.09.005
Publication status	Published - 20 Oct 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was funded by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) and Natural England (project code ECM 58632). The Breeding Bird Survey is a Partnership between the BTO, RSPB, and Joint Nature Conservation Committee (on behalf of Natural Resources Wales, Natural England, Council for Nature Conservation and Countryside, and NatureScot) and relies on volunteer surveyors. Simon Gillings provided tetrad-level predictions of relative abundance for wading birds. We are grateful to members of the RSPB steering group, who contributed to the development of our scenarios, and Profs. Tim Benton and Andrew Balmford who commented on an earlier version of this manuscript. Conceptualization, T.F. R.B.B. T.B.-L. G.M.B. W.J.P. and R.H.F.; methodology, T.F. T.B.-L. J.P.C. D.M. P.S. and R.H.F.; software, T.F.; formal analysis, T.F.; resources, D.M.; data curation, T.F.; writing – original draft, T.F.; writing – review & editing, R.B.B. T.B.-L. G.M.B. J.P.C. D.M. P.S. W.J.P. and R.H.F.; visualization, T.F.; supervision, W.J.P. The authors declare no competing interests.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors

Data Availability Statement

Where permitted by external licensing agreements, all data will be shared by the lead contact upon request after publication (Table S3 lists the availability of all third-party data sources). Original code, in addition to summary results, have been deposited in a Zenodo repository (Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8269104).

Keywords

agriculture
biodiversity conservation
birds
climate change mitigation
forestry
land use
nature-based solutions
spatially-explicit scenarios

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.oneear.2023.09.005Licence: CC BY

Finch_etal_OE_Spatially_Targeted_Nature_VOR
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Final published version, 4.59 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{55f68445336f4b908292f20790c6d136,

title = "Spatially targeted nature-based solutions can mitigate climate change and nature loss but require a systems approach",

abstract = "Finite land is under pressure to provide food, timber, human infrastructure, climate change mitigation, and wildlife habitat. Given the inherent trade-offs associated with land-use choices, there is a need to assess how alternative land-use trajectories will impact the delivery of these benefits. Here, we develop nine exploratory, climate change mitigation-driven land-use scenarios for the UK. The scenario that maximized deployment of nature-based solutions reduced greenhouse gas (CO2e) emissions from the land sector by >100% by 2050 but resulted in a 21% decline in food production. All mitigation scenarios delivered aggregate increases in habitat availability for 109 bird species (including 61 species of conservation concern), although farmland-associated species lost habitat. Our study reiterates the potential of nature-based solutions to address global climate and biodiversity challenges but also highlights risks to farmland wildlife and the importance of food system reform to mitigate potential reductions in primary food production.",

keywords = "agriculture, biodiversity conservation, birds, climate change mitigation, forestry, land use, nature-based solutions, spatially-explicit scenarios",

author = "Tom Finch and Bradbury, {Richard B.} and Tom Bradfer-Lawrence and Buchanan, {Graeme M.} and Copping, {Joshua P.} and Dario Massimino and Pete Smith and Peach, {Will J.} and Field, {Rob H.}",

note = "Funding Information: This study was funded by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) and Natural England (project code ECM 58632). The Breeding Bird Survey is a Partnership between the BTO, RSPB, and Joint Nature Conservation Committee (on behalf of Natural Resources Wales, Natural England, Council for Nature Conservation and Countryside, and NatureScot) and relies on volunteer surveyors. Simon Gillings provided tetrad-level predictions of relative abundance for wading birds. We are grateful to members of the RSPB steering group, who contributed to the development of our scenarios, and Profs. Tim Benton and Andrew Balmford who commented on an earlier version of this manuscript. Conceptualization, T.F. R.B.B. T.B.-L. G.M.B. W.J.P. and R.H.F.; methodology, T.F. T.B.-L. J.P.C. D.M. P.S. and R.H.F.; software, T.F.; formal analysis, T.F.; resources, D.M.; data curation, T.F.; writing – original draft, T.F.; writing – review & editing, R.B.B. T.B.-L. G.M.B. J.P.C. D.M. P.S. W.J.P. and R.H.F.; visualization, T.F.; supervision, W.J.P. The authors declare no competing interests. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors",

year = "2023",

month = oct,

day = "20",

doi = "10.1016/j.oneear.2023.09.005",

language = "English",

volume = "6",

pages = "1350--1374",

journal = "One Earth",

issn = "2590-3330",

publisher = "Cell Press",

number = "10",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Spatially targeted nature-based solutions can mitigate climate change and nature loss but require a systems approach

AU - Finch, Tom

AU - Bradbury, Richard B.

AU - Bradfer-Lawrence, Tom

AU - Buchanan, Graeme M.

AU - Copping, Joshua P.

AU - Massimino, Dario

AU - Smith, Pete

AU - Peach, Will J.

AU - Field, Rob H.

N1 - Funding Information: This study was funded by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) and Natural England (project code ECM 58632). The Breeding Bird Survey is a Partnership between the BTO, RSPB, and Joint Nature Conservation Committee (on behalf of Natural Resources Wales, Natural England, Council for Nature Conservation and Countryside, and NatureScot) and relies on volunteer surveyors. Simon Gillings provided tetrad-level predictions of relative abundance for wading birds. We are grateful to members of the RSPB steering group, who contributed to the development of our scenarios, and Profs. Tim Benton and Andrew Balmford who commented on an earlier version of this manuscript. Conceptualization, T.F. R.B.B. T.B.-L. G.M.B. W.J.P. and R.H.F.; methodology, T.F. T.B.-L. J.P.C. D.M. P.S. and R.H.F.; software, T.F.; formal analysis, T.F.; resources, D.M.; data curation, T.F.; writing – original draft, T.F.; writing – review & editing, R.B.B. T.B.-L. G.M.B. J.P.C. D.M. P.S. W.J.P. and R.H.F.; visualization, T.F.; supervision, W.J.P. The authors declare no competing interests. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors

PY - 2023/10/20

Y1 - 2023/10/20

N2 - Finite land is under pressure to provide food, timber, human infrastructure, climate change mitigation, and wildlife habitat. Given the inherent trade-offs associated with land-use choices, there is a need to assess how alternative land-use trajectories will impact the delivery of these benefits. Here, we develop nine exploratory, climate change mitigation-driven land-use scenarios for the UK. The scenario that maximized deployment of nature-based solutions reduced greenhouse gas (CO2e) emissions from the land sector by >100% by 2050 but resulted in a 21% decline in food production. All mitigation scenarios delivered aggregate increases in habitat availability for 109 bird species (including 61 species of conservation concern), although farmland-associated species lost habitat. Our study reiterates the potential of nature-based solutions to address global climate and biodiversity challenges but also highlights risks to farmland wildlife and the importance of food system reform to mitigate potential reductions in primary food production.

AB - Finite land is under pressure to provide food, timber, human infrastructure, climate change mitigation, and wildlife habitat. Given the inherent trade-offs associated with land-use choices, there is a need to assess how alternative land-use trajectories will impact the delivery of these benefits. Here, we develop nine exploratory, climate change mitigation-driven land-use scenarios for the UK. The scenario that maximized deployment of nature-based solutions reduced greenhouse gas (CO2e) emissions from the land sector by >100% by 2050 but resulted in a 21% decline in food production. All mitigation scenarios delivered aggregate increases in habitat availability for 109 bird species (including 61 species of conservation concern), although farmland-associated species lost habitat. Our study reiterates the potential of nature-based solutions to address global climate and biodiversity challenges but also highlights risks to farmland wildlife and the importance of food system reform to mitigate potential reductions in primary food production.

KW - agriculture

KW - biodiversity conservation

KW - birds

KW - climate change mitigation

KW - forestry

KW - land use

KW - nature-based solutions

KW - spatially-explicit scenarios

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85174191066&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.09.005

DO - 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.09.005

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85174191066

SN - 2590-3330

VL - 6

SP - 1350

EP - 1374

JO - One Earth

JF - One Earth

IS - 10

ER -

Spatially targeted nature-based solutions can mitigate climate change and nature loss but require a systems approach

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Data Availability Statement

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this