Statistical analysis of an endemic disease from a capture-recapture experiment

Yinghui Wei*, Peter Neal, Sandra Telfer, Mike Begon

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


There are a number of statistical techniques for analysing epidemic outbreaks. However, many diseases are endemic within populations and the analysis of such diseases is complicated by changing population demography. Motivated by the spread of cowpox amongst rodent populations, a combined mathematical model for population and disease dynamics is introduced. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is then constructed to make statistical inference for the model based on data being obtained from a capture-recapture experiment. The statistical analysis is used to identify the key elements in the spread of the cowpox virus.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2759-2773
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Applied Statistics
Issue number12
Early online date17 Sept 2012
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2012

Bibliographical note

Data collection was financially supported by National Environment Research Council grant number GR3/9304. This work was supported by a PhD studentship (first author) from the University of Manchester and by MRC grant number


  • endemicity
  • infectious diseases
  • MCMC
  • open population


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