The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: a global meta-analysis

Lucyna  Hałupka; Debora  Arlt; Jere  Tolvanen; Alexandre Millon; Pierre Bize; Peter Adamik; Pascal  Albert; Wayne J.  Arendt; Alexandr  Artemyev; Vittorio  Baglione; Jerzy  Banbura; Mirosława  Bańbura; Emilio Barba; Robert T. Barrett; Peter H. Becker; Eugen  Belskii; Mark Bolton; Emerson Keith  Bowers; Joel Bried; Lyanne  Brouwer; Monika  Bukacińska; Dariusz  Bukaciński; Lesley P  Bulluck; Kate F.   Carstens; Inês  Catry; Motti  Charter; Anna  Chernomorets; Rita  Covas; Monika  Czuchra; Donald C Dearborn; Florentino  de Lope; Adrian S  Di Giacomo; Valery C.   Dombrovski; Hugh Drummond; Michael J  Dunn; Tapio Eeva; Louise Emmerson; Yngve O.  Espmark; Juan A. Fargallo; Sergey  Gashkov; Elena Yu.  Golubova; Michael Griesser; Mike Harris; Jeffrey P  Hoover; Zuzanna  Jagiello; Patrik  Karell; Janusz  Kloskowski; Walter D  Koenig; Heikki  Kolunen; Malgorzata  Korczak-Abshire; Erkki Korpimäki; Indrikis  Krams; Miloš  Krist; Sonja C.  Krüger; Boris D.  Kuranov; Xavier Lambin; Michael P.  Lombardo; Andrey  Lyakhov; Alfonso  Marzal; Anders  Pape Møller; Verónica  Neves; Jan Tottrup  Nielsen; Alexander  Numerov; Beata  Orłowska; Daniel Oro; Markus  Öst; Richard A Phillips; Hannu Pietiäinen; Vicente  Polo; Jiri  Porkert; Jaime Potti; Hannu  Pöysä¤; Thierry  Printemps; Jouke  Prop; Petra  Quillfeldt; Jaime Albino Ramos; Pierre-Alain  Ravussin; Robert N  Rosenfield; Alexandre Roulin; Dustin R  Rubenstein; Irina E.  Samusenko; Denis A  Saunders; Michael P. Schaub; Juan Carlos  Senar; Fabrizio  Sergio; Tapio  Solonen; Diana  Solovyeva; Janusz  Stępniewski; Paul Thompson; Marcin  Tobółka; János Török; Louis  Vernooij; Marcel E Visser; David F Westneat; Nathaniel T Wheelwright; Jarosław  Wiącek; Karen L  Wiebe; Andrew G Wood; Andrzej  Wuczyński; Dariusz  Wysock; Markéta  Zárybnická; Antoni Margalida; Konrad  Halupka

doi:10.1073/pnas.2208389120

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: a global meta-analysis

Lucyna Hałupka ^* (Corresponding Author), Debora Arlt, Jere Tolvanen , Alexandre Millon, Pierre Bize, Peter Adamik, Pascal Albert, Wayne J. Arendt , Alexandr Artemyev , Vittorio Baglione , Jerzy Banbura, Mirosława Bańbura , Emilio Barba, Robert T. Barrett, Peter H. Becker, Eugen Belskii, Mark Bolton, Emerson Keith Bowers , Joel Bried, Lyanne BrouwerMonika Bukacińska, Dariusz Bukaciński , Lesley P Bulluck , Kate F. Carstens, Inês Catry, Motti Charter , Anna Chernomorets , Rita Covas , Monika Czuchra, Donald C Dearborn, Florentino de Lope, Adrian S Di Giacomo , Valery C. Dombrovski, Hugh Drummond, Michael J Dunn, Tapio Eeva, Louise Emmerson, Yngve O. Espmark, Juan A. Fargallo, Sergey Gashkov, Elena Yu. Golubova , Michael Griesser, Mike Harris, Jeffrey P Hoover , Zuzanna Jagiello, Patrik Karell, Janusz Kloskowski , Walter D Koenig , Heikki Kolunen , Malgorzata Korczak-Abshire , Erkki Korpimäki, Indrikis Krams , Miloš Krist, Sonja C. Krüger , Boris D. Kuranov , Xavier Lambin, Michael P. Lombardo, Andrey Lyakhov , Alfonso Marzal , Anders Pape Møller , Verónica Neves, Jan Tottrup Nielsen, Alexander Numerov, Beata Orłowska , Daniel Oro, Markus Öst, Richard A Phillips, Hannu Pietiäinen, Vicente Polo, Jiri Porkert, Jaime Potti, Hannu Pöysä¤ , Thierry Printemps , Jouke Prop, Petra Quillfeldt, Jaime Albino Ramos, Pierre-Alain Ravussin , Robert N Rosenfield, Alexandre Roulin, Dustin R Rubenstein , Irina E. Samusenko , Denis A Saunders, Michael P. Schaub, Juan Carlos Senar, Fabrizio Sergio, Tapio Solonen , Diana Solovyeva , Janusz Stępniewski , Paul Thompson, Marcin Tobółka , János Török, Louis Vernooij, Marcel E Visser, David F Westneat, Nathaniel T Wheelwright, Jarosław Wiącek, Karen L Wiebe , Andrew G Wood, Andrzej Wuczyński, Dariusz Wysock, Markéta Zárybnická, Antoni Margalida, Konrad Halupka

^*Corresponding author for this work

Aberdeen Centre For Environmental Sustainability

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Abstract

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Original language	English
Article number	e2208389120
Journal	PNAS
Volume	120
Issue number	19
Early online date	1 May 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208389120
Publication status	Published - 9 May 2023

Bibliographical note

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We are grateful to our collaborators who worked with us and collected field data. The list of principal collaborators and institutions is published in SI Appendix, Table S6. We thank Heather Renner for the informa-tion about the data collected by Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge. We sincerely appreciate valuable comments and suggestions made by two reviewers, which helped us in improving the manuscript. This meta-analysis was financed by the grant of the Polish National Science Centre (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) (no. 2017/27/B/NZ8/00465) awarded to Lucyna Hałupka.

Data Availability Statement

Data, Materials, and Software Availability. All data and R scripts relevant to the article are available at Figshare (61). Other study data are included in the article and/or SI Appendix, Tables S1–S3

Keywords

Biological Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Climate Change
Birds
Offspring Production
Meta-Analysis

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Hałupka , L., Arlt, D., Tolvanen , J., Millon, A., Bize, P., Adamik, P., Albert, P., Arendt , W. J., Artemyev , A., Baglione , V., Banbura, J., Bańbura , M., Barba, E., Barrett, R. T., Becker, P. H., Belskii, E., Bolton, M., Bowers , E. K., Bried, J., ... Halupka, K. (2023). The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: a global meta-analysis. PNAS, 120(19), Article e2208389120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208389120

Hałupka , L, Arlt, D, Tolvanen , J, Millon, A, Bize, P, Adamik, P, Albert, P, Arendt , WJ, Artemyev , A, Baglione , V, Banbura, J, Bańbura , M, Barba, E, Barrett, RT, Becker, PH, Belskii, E, Bolton, M, Bowers , EK, Bried, J, Brouwer, L, Bukacińska, M, Bukaciński , D, Bulluck , LP, Carstens, KF, Catry, I, Charter , M, Chernomorets , A, Covas , R, Czuchra, M, Dearborn, DC, de Lope, F, Di Giacomo , AS, Dombrovski, VC, Drummond, H, Dunn, MJ, Eeva, T, Emmerson, L, Espmark, YO, Fargallo, JA, Gashkov, S, Golubova , EY, Griesser, M, Harris, M, Hoover , JP, Jagiello, Z, Karell, P, Kloskowski , J, Koenig , WD, Kolunen , H, Korczak-Abshire , M, Korpimäki, E, Krams , I, Krist, M, Krüger , SC, Kuranov , BD, Lambin, X, Lombardo, MP, Lyakhov , A, Marzal , A, Pape Møller , A, Neves, V, Nielsen, JT, Numerov, A, Orłowska , B, Oro, D, Öst, M, Phillips, RA, Pietiäinen, H, Polo, V, Porkert, J, Potti, J, Pöysä¤ , H, Printemps , T, Prop, J, Quillfeldt, P, Ramos, JA, Ravussin , P-A, Rosenfield, RN, Roulin, A, Rubenstein , DR, Samusenko , IE, Saunders, DA, Schaub, MP, Senar, JC, Sergio, F, Solonen , T, Solovyeva , D, Stępniewski , J, Thompson, P, Tobółka , M, Török, J, Vernooij, L, Visser, ME, Westneat, DF, Wheelwright, NT, Wiącek, J, Wiebe , KL, Wood, AG, Wuczyński, A, Wysock, D, Zárybnická, M, Margalida, A & Halupka, K 2023, 'The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: a global meta-analysis', PNAS, vol. 120, no. 19, e2208389120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208389120

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title = "The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: a global meta-analysis",

abstract = "Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.",

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author = "Lucyna Ha{\l}upka and Debora Arlt and Jere Tolvanen and Alexandre Millon and Pierre Bize and Peter Adamik and Pascal Albert and Arendt, {Wayne J.} and Alexandr Artemyev and Vittorio Baglione and Jerzy Banbura and Miros{\l}awa Ba{\'n}bura and Emilio Barba and Barrett, {Robert T.} and Becker, {Peter H.} and Eugen Belskii and Mark Bolton and Bowers, {Emerson Keith} and Joel Bried and Lyanne Brouwer and Monika Bukaci{\'n}ska and Dariusz Bukaci{\'n}ski and Bulluck, {Lesley P} and Carstens, {Kate F.} and In{\^e}s Catry and Motti Charter and Anna Chernomorets and Rita Covas and Monika Czuchra and Dearborn, {Donald C} and {de Lope}, Florentino and {Di Giacomo}, {Adrian S} and Dombrovski, {Valery C.} and Hugh Drummond and Dunn, {Michael J} and Tapio Eeva and Louise Emmerson and Espmark, {Yngve O.} and Fargallo, {Juan A.} and Sergey Gashkov and Golubova, {Elena Yu.} and Michael Griesser and Mike Harris and Hoover, {Jeffrey P} and Zuzanna Jagiello and Patrik Karell and Janusz Kloskowski and Koenig, {Walter D} and Heikki Kolunen and Malgorzata Korczak-Abshire and Erkki Korpim{\"a}ki and Indrikis Krams and Milo{\v s} Krist and Kr{\"u}ger, {Sonja C.} and Kuranov, {Boris D.} and Xavier Lambin and Lombardo, {Michael P.} and Andrey Lyakhov and Alfonso Marzal and {Pape M{\o}ller}, Anders and Ver{\'o}nica Neves and Nielsen, {Jan Tottrup} and Alexander Numerov and Beata Or{\l}owska and Daniel Oro and Markus {\"O}st and Phillips, {Richard A} and Hannu Pieti{\"a}inen and Vicente Polo and Jiri Porkert and Jaime Potti and Hannu P{\"o}ys{\"a}¤ and Thierry Printemps and Jouke Prop and Petra Quillfeldt and Ramos, {Jaime Albino} and Pierre-Alain Ravussin and Rosenfield, {Robert N} and Alexandre Roulin and Rubenstein, {Dustin R} and Samusenko, {Irina E.} and Saunders, {Denis A} and Schaub, {Michael P.} and Senar, {Juan Carlos} and Fabrizio Sergio and Tapio Solonen and Diana Solovyeva and Janusz St{\c e}pniewski and Paul Thompson and Marcin Tob{\'o}{\l}ka and J{\'a}nos T{\"o}r{\"o}k and Louis Vernooij and Visser, {Marcel E} and Westneat, {David F} and Wheelwright, {Nathaniel T} and Jaros{\l}aw Wi{\c a}cek and Wiebe, {Karen L} and Wood, {Andrew G} and Andrzej Wuczy{\'n}ski and Dariusz Wysock and Mark{\'e}ta Z{\'a}rybnick{\'a} and Antoni Margalida and Konrad Halupka",

note = "ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We are grateful to our collaborators who worked with us and collected field data. The list of principal collaborators and institutions is published in SI Appendix, Table S6. We thank Heather Renner for the informa-tion about the data collected by Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge. We sincerely appreciate valuable comments and suggestions made by two reviewers, which helped us in improving the manuscript. This meta-analysis was financed by the grant of the Polish National Science Centre (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) (no. 2017/27/B/NZ8/00465) awarded to Lucyna Ha{\l}upka.",

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T1 - The effect of climate change on avian offspring production

T2 - a global meta-analysis

AU - Hałupka , Lucyna

AU - Arlt, Debora

AU - Tolvanen , Jere

AU - Millon, Alexandre

AU - Bize, Pierre

AU - Adamik, Peter

AU - Albert, Pascal

AU - Arendt , Wayne J.

AU - Artemyev , Alexandr

AU - Baglione , Vittorio

AU - Banbura, Jerzy

AU - Bańbura , Mirosława

AU - Barba, Emilio

AU - Barrett, Robert T.

AU - Becker, Peter H.

AU - Belskii, Eugen

AU - Bolton, Mark

AU - Bowers , Emerson Keith

AU - Bried, Joel

AU - Brouwer, Lyanne

AU - Bukacińska, Monika

AU - Bukaciński , Dariusz

AU - Bulluck , Lesley P

AU - Carstens, Kate F.

AU - Catry, Inês

AU - Charter , Motti

AU - Chernomorets , Anna

AU - Covas , Rita

AU - Czuchra, Monika

AU - Dearborn, Donald C

AU - de Lope, Florentino

AU - Di Giacomo , Adrian S

AU - Dombrovski, Valery C.

AU - Drummond, Hugh

AU - Dunn, Michael J

AU - Eeva, Tapio

AU - Emmerson, Louise

AU - Espmark, Yngve O.

AU - Fargallo, Juan A.

AU - Gashkov, Sergey

AU - Golubova , Elena Yu.

AU - Griesser, Michael

AU - Harris, Mike

AU - Hoover , Jeffrey P

AU - Jagiello, Zuzanna

AU - Karell, Patrik

AU - Kloskowski , Janusz

AU - Koenig , Walter D

AU - Kolunen , Heikki

AU - Korczak-Abshire , Malgorzata

AU - Korpimäki, Erkki

AU - Krams , Indrikis

AU - Krist, Miloš

AU - Krüger , Sonja C.

AU - Kuranov , Boris D.

AU - Lambin, Xavier

AU - Lombardo, Michael P.

AU - Lyakhov , Andrey

AU - Marzal , Alfonso

AU - Pape Møller , Anders

AU - Neves, Verónica

AU - Nielsen, Jan Tottrup

AU - Numerov, Alexander

AU - Orłowska , Beata

AU - Oro, Daniel

AU - Öst, Markus

AU - Phillips, Richard A

AU - Pietiäinen, Hannu

AU - Polo, Vicente

AU - Porkert, Jiri

AU - Potti, Jaime

AU - Pöysä¤ , Hannu

AU - Printemps , Thierry

AU - Prop, Jouke

AU - Quillfeldt, Petra

AU - Ramos, Jaime Albino

AU - Ravussin , Pierre-Alain

AU - Rosenfield, Robert N

AU - Roulin, Alexandre

AU - Rubenstein , Dustin R

AU - Samusenko , Irina E.

AU - Saunders, Denis A

AU - Schaub, Michael P.

AU - Senar, Juan Carlos

AU - Sergio, Fabrizio

AU - Solonen , Tapio

AU - Solovyeva , Diana

AU - Stępniewski , Janusz

AU - Thompson, Paul

AU - Tobółka , Marcin

AU - Török, János

AU - Vernooij, Louis

AU - Visser, Marcel E

AU - Westneat, David F

AU - Wheelwright, Nathaniel T

AU - Wiącek, Jarosław

AU - Wiebe , Karen L

AU - Wood, Andrew G

AU - Wuczyński, Andrzej

AU - Wysock, Dariusz

AU - Zárybnická, Markéta

AU - Margalida, Antoni

AU - Halupka, Konrad

N1 - ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We are grateful to our collaborators who worked with us and collected field data. The list of principal collaborators and institutions is published in SI Appendix, Table S6. We thank Heather Renner for the informa-tion about the data collected by Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge. We sincerely appreciate valuable comments and suggestions made by two reviewers, which helped us in improving the manuscript. This meta-analysis was financed by the grant of the Polish National Science Centre (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) (no. 2017/27/B/NZ8/00465) awarded to Lucyna Hałupka.

PY - 2023/5/9

Y1 - 2023/5/9

N2 - Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

AB - Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

KW - Biological Sciences

KW - Environmental Sciences

KW - Climate Change

KW - Birds

KW - Offspring Production

KW - Meta-Analysis

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2208389120

DO - 10.1073/pnas.2208389120

M3 - Article

C2 - 37126701

SN - 0027-8424

VL - 120

JO - PNAS

JF - PNAS

IS - 19

M1 - e2208389120

ER -

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: a global meta-analysis

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Data Availability Statement

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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