True prevalence of long-COVID in a nationwide, population cohort study

Claire E Hastie; David J Lowe; Andrew McAuley; Nicholas L Mills; Andrew J Winter; Corri Black; Janet T Scott; Catherine A O'Donnell; David N Blane; Susan Browne; Tracy R Ibbotson; Jill P Pell

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-43661-w

True prevalence of long-COVID in a nationwide, population cohort study

Claire E Hastie, David J Lowe, Andrew McAuley, Nicholas L Mills, Andrew J Winter, Corri Black, Janet T Scott, Catherine A O'Donnell, David N Blane, Susan Browne, Tracy R Ibbotson, Jill P Pell^* (Corresponding Author)

^*Corresponding author for this work

Applied Health Sciences

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Abstract

Long-COVID prevalence estimates vary widely and should take account of symptoms that would have occurred anyway. Here we determine the prevalence of symptoms attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection, taking account of background rates and confounding, in a nationwide population cohort study of 198,096 Scottish adults. 98,666 (49.8%) had symptomatic laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and 99,430 (50.2%) were age-, sex-, and socioeconomically-matched and never-infected. While 41,775 (64.5%) reported at least one symptom 6 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection, this was also true of 34,600 (50.8%) of those never-infected. The crude prevalence of one or more symptom attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection was 13.8% (13.2%,14.3%), 12.8% (11.9%,13.6%), and 16.3% (14.4%,18.2%) at 6, 12, and 18 months respectively. Following adjustment for potential confounders, these figures were 6.6% (6.3%, 6.9%), 6.5% (6.0%, 6.9%) and 10.4% (9.1%, 11.6%) respectively. Long-COVID is characterised by a wide range of symptoms that, apart from altered taste and smell, are non-specific. Care should be taken in attributing symptoms to previous SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	7892
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	14
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43661-w
Publication status	Published - 30 Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Acknowledgements
Long-CISS was funded by the Chief Scientist Office (ref. COV/LTE/20/06) and Public Health Scotland. We are grateful to Public Health Scotland, e-DRIS and HDR-UK for providing the routine data and access to the national safe haven, to Storm-ID for administering invitations and data collection, the Scottish Government for supporting the study launch, and the University of Glasgow PPIE (Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement) groups for their contributions to study design, recruitment, and interpretation of results.

Data Availability Statement

The datasets analysed during the current study (National Health Service Scotland’s PCR testing platform, Scottish Morbidity Records 01 and 04, Prescribing Information System, Covid-19 vaccination database, and General Registrar Office death certificates) are available in the National Services Scotland National Safe Haven, https://www.isdscotland.org/Products-and-Services/eDRIS/Use-of-the-National-Safe-Haven/. This protects the confidentiality of the data and ensures that Information Governance is robust. Applications to access health data in Scotland are submitted to the NHS Scotland Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care. Information can be found at https://www.informationgovernance.scot.nhs.uk/pbpphsc/.

Keywords

Adult
Humans
COVID-19/epidemiology
SARS-CoV-2
Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome
Cohort Studies
Prevalence

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10.1038/s41467-023-43661-w

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Cite this

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abstract = "Long-COVID prevalence estimates vary widely and should take account of symptoms that would have occurred anyway. Here we determine the prevalence of symptoms attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection, taking account of background rates and confounding, in a nationwide population cohort study of 198,096 Scottish adults. 98,666 (49.8%) had symptomatic laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and 99,430 (50.2%) were age-, sex-, and socioeconomically-matched and never-infected. While 41,775 (64.5%) reported at least one symptom 6 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection, this was also true of 34,600 (50.8%) of those never-infected. The crude prevalence of one or more symptom attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection was 13.8% (13.2%,14.3%), 12.8% (11.9%,13.6%), and 16.3% (14.4%,18.2%) at 6, 12, and 18 months respectively. Following adjustment for potential confounders, these figures were 6.6% (6.3%, 6.9%), 6.5% (6.0%, 6.9%) and 10.4% (9.1%, 11.6%) respectively. Long-COVID is characterised by a wide range of symptoms that, apart from altered taste and smell, are non-specific. Care should be taken in attributing symptoms to previous SARS-CoV-2 infection.",

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note = "Acknowledgements Long-CISS was funded by the Chief Scientist Office (ref. COV/LTE/20/06) and Public Health Scotland. We are grateful to Public Health Scotland, e-DRIS and HDR-UK for providing the routine data and access to the national safe haven, to Storm-ID for administering invitations and data collection, the Scottish Government for supporting the study launch, and the University of Glasgow PPIE (Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement) groups for their contributions to study design, recruitment, and interpretation of results.",

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AU - Scott, Janet T

AU - O'Donnell, Catherine A

AU - Blane, David N

AU - Browne, Susan

AU - Ibbotson, Tracy R

AU - Pell, Jill P

N1 - Acknowledgements Long-CISS was funded by the Chief Scientist Office (ref. COV/LTE/20/06) and Public Health Scotland. We are grateful to Public Health Scotland, e-DRIS and HDR-UK for providing the routine data and access to the national safe haven, to Storm-ID for administering invitations and data collection, the Scottish Government for supporting the study launch, and the University of Glasgow PPIE (Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement) groups for their contributions to study design, recruitment, and interpretation of results.

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N2 - Long-COVID prevalence estimates vary widely and should take account of symptoms that would have occurred anyway. Here we determine the prevalence of symptoms attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection, taking account of background rates and confounding, in a nationwide population cohort study of 198,096 Scottish adults. 98,666 (49.8%) had symptomatic laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and 99,430 (50.2%) were age-, sex-, and socioeconomically-matched and never-infected. While 41,775 (64.5%) reported at least one symptom 6 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection, this was also true of 34,600 (50.8%) of those never-infected. The crude prevalence of one or more symptom attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection was 13.8% (13.2%,14.3%), 12.8% (11.9%,13.6%), and 16.3% (14.4%,18.2%) at 6, 12, and 18 months respectively. Following adjustment for potential confounders, these figures were 6.6% (6.3%, 6.9%), 6.5% (6.0%, 6.9%) and 10.4% (9.1%, 11.6%) respectively. Long-COVID is characterised by a wide range of symptoms that, apart from altered taste and smell, are non-specific. Care should be taken in attributing symptoms to previous SARS-CoV-2 infection.

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KW - Humans

KW - COVID-19/epidemiology

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome

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DO - 10.1038/s41467-023-43661-w

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C2 - 38036541

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 14

SP - 7892

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

ER -

True prevalence of long-COVID in a nationwide, population cohort study

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Data Availability Statement

Keywords

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