Assessing Scotland’s self-sufficiency of major food commodities

Analysis of food self-sufficiency at the regional level helps to better understand its dependency on, and vulnerability to, the food system. Moreover, achieving food self-sufficiency has gained prominence in the present policy agenda to increase resilience to adverse events and lower food resource footprint. Using a novel approach, we estimated Scotland's food balance sheets (FBS) and assessed the self-sufficiency of major food commodities. We also assessed the contribution of domestic production towards nutrient security. Data from 2003 to 2019 were obtained from Economic Reports on Scottish Agriculture and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)’s family food statistics. Food import and export data are not readily available for Scotland. Therefore, we developed a consumption-based approach to estimate the net trade values of each commodity. We first constructed the annual food balance sheets for the above major food commodities in Scotland from 2003 to 2019 using the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)’s FBS approach. We also derived the per capita food availability of each commodity. Next, following the FAO’s definition of food self-sufficiency, the self-sufficiency ratios (SSR) of major food commodities were estimated. Using the conversion factors published by FAO, we estimated the supply of energy and macronutrients (protein and fat) from the major food commodities. Finally, the contribution of Scottish production to nutrition security in the last two decades was also assessed. According to our findings, Scotland is a net exporter of barley and oats. Since 2003, Scotland had a net trade surplus of potatoes and became a net importer of wheat since 2012. Scotland is a net exporter of beef but a net importer of pork and poultry. Scotland is also a net exporter of dairy products, and it turned from a net importer to a net exporter of eggs in 2014, marking a notable turnaround. Cereal SSR is consistently 100 or above, showing robust production meeting consumption. Potatoes' SSR is around 128, consistently surpassing consumption. Meat products’ SSR ranges from 26 to 146, with fluctuations influenced by imports and seasons. Dairy SSR is around 112, indicating slightly more production than consumption. Eggs maintain an SSR of around 102, meeting consumption needs. Wheat plays a key role in the energy supply, largely sourced from Scotland. Potatoes are also an important source of energy, and the entire supply comes from Scotland. Meat products, rich in protein and fat, have varying proportions from Scottish sources. Dairy products and eggs, major contributors to protein and fat supply, are entirely sourced from Scotland. Our assessment forms a basis for evidence-based decision-making in Scotland's agricultural and food policy. It provides insights into where investments and support may be needed to enhance domestic production and promote a resilient and sustainable food system. The method used in this study could be used in future studies to estimate regional-level food self-sufficiency in the absence of trade and complete food balance sheet data.

Keywords: Food systems, food balance sheets, self-sufficiency, sustainability