Abstract
The South American rainfall Dipole (SAD) is a renowned spatial structure present in the austral summer as part of the South American monsoon system. SAD phases have been related with extreme precipitations and severe droughts across South America, but are yet to be predicted. Here, we reveal two robust and reliable intraseasonal windows in the accumulated SAD index where we can forecast its quantile-state between 5 to 15 and 60 to 70 days in advance (99% significance level). These windows are insensitive to variations in the pole's size and accumulation window, and results are consistent across different quantiles states (median, tercile, and quartile). Our method, which is based on analyzing the lagged mutual information between future and present states, could be used in the development of early warnings for extreme rainfall events. Moreover, it is unrestricted to the present analysis, being applicable to other stationary signals where a forecast is missing.
Original language | English |
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Article number | e2020GL089985 |
Number of pages | 10 |
Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
Volume | 47 |
Issue number | 21 |
Early online date | 5 Nov 2020 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 16 Nov 2020 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Keywords
- forecast
- intraseasonal scales
- Predictability
- South American Dipole
- time series analysis
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Radio interview about published paper and its implications for the summer in Uruguay
Nicolás Díaz Negrín, Marcelo Barreiro & Nicolas Rubido Obrer
22/02/24
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