Quantitative analysis of carbon dioxide emission reduction pathways: Towards carbon neutrality in China's power sector

China has continually reduced the intensity of its carbon emissions, increased its efforts to fulfil its Nationally Determined Contributions, and boosted its efforts to mitigate climate change. Due to its vast power generation sector, China is at present the world's top carbon dioxide emitter (CO₂). Utilizing the Low-Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) – which is an integrated, scenario-based energy and environmental modelling tool created by the Stockholm Environment Agency – four scenarios other than the baseline scenario were devised and compared. The current study builds on two Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) scenarios and two Carbon Neutral (CNT) scenarios in which emissions peak in the year 2025 or 2030, allowing for an examination of ambitious actions necessary beyond business as usual and existing policy trajectories to attain net-zero emissions. This study also looked at how the learning curve affected the expenses in the aforementioned scenarios. It was determined that scenarios that deployed Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) technologies were more favourable in realizing China's carbon neutrality goal before 2060 by reaching negative emissions, and scenarios that achieved emissions peak earlier proved higher cost benefits as well. The findings of the study further revealed that the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) savings in the NDC 2025, NDC 2030, CNT 2025, and CNT 2030 scenarios will be 104.23 Gt, 76.77 Gt, 142.74 Gt, and 130.92 Gt respectively, in the study period 2020–2060 and the cost-benefit associated with them per tonne of CO₂ will be 8.4, 8.5, 26.4, 30.4 CNY/t CO₂, respectively. Moreover, under the CNT 2025 scenario, annual installed capacity of wind power should be greater than 46.8 GW between 2025 and 2030, and greater than 55.2 GW between 2030 and 2060; while the annual installed capacity of solar PV should be greater than 59.2 GW between 2025 and 2030, and greater than 61.3 GW between 2030 and 2060. The Chinese power production industry must seek to convert to a larger-scale deployment of carbon capture technologies such as CCS and BECCS.